Natural disasters

Africa has experienced some of the worst droughts and famines in terms of number of people killed or number affected (see table), with particularly severe droughts in 1972-73 and 1984-85, affecting much of Northern, Southern, Eastern and Sahelian Africa (Gommes and Petrassi 1996). Countries most regularly affected include Botswana, Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritania and Mozambique (FAO 2001), where the impacts of famine are exacerbated by inadequate transport facilities to receive and distribute food and medical aid (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1990). There are some indications that droughts are becoming more prolonged and their impacts more severe (DMC 2000, FAO 2000).

Some of the worst disasters in Africa, 1972-2000
			number killed	number affected
1972	famine	Ethiopia	600 000	no data
1973	drought	Ethiopia	100 000	no data
1974	drought	Ethiopia	200 000	no data
1980	drought	Mozambique	no data	6 000 000
1982	famine	Ghana	no data	12 500 000
1983	drought	Ethiopia	no data	7 000 000
1984	drought	Ethiopia	300 000	7 750 000
1984	drought	Sudan	150 000	8 400 000
1985	drought	Mozambique	100 000	2 466 000
1987	drought	Ethiopia	no data	7 000 000
1990	drought	Ethiopia	no data	6 500 000
1991	drought	Ethiopia	no data	6 160 000
1991	drought	Sudan	no data	8 600 000
1993	drought	Malawi	no data	7 000 000
1993	famine	Ethiopia	no data	6 700 000
1999	famine	Ethiopia	no data	7 767 594
2000	drought	Ethiopia	no data	10 500 000
Source: CRED-OFDA 2002

The risk of damage from heavy rain is greater in drier areas than in those that usually receive higher rainfall because there is less vegetation cover to absorb the water and stabilize soils. Expansion of informal settlements into the flood zone is putting many more people at risk of flooding, as illustrated in South Africa's Alexandra Township, Johannesburg, during the floods of 2000 when approximately 3 000 families living in shacks below the floodline were subjected to flooding and outbreaks of cholera (Kim 2000, World Bank 2001a).

Disasters can have severe economic impacts which are difficult to calculate. The Western Indian Ocean islands typically experience ten cyclones a year, between November and May, which bring strong winds and heavy rainfall. This causes destruction of infrastructure, particularly in low-lying areas and where settlements have encroached into flood-prone areas. Huge costs are incurred due to destruction of income-generation activities, including tourism revenues, and rehabilitation and replacement of damaged infrastructure and crops.

Globally, Africa suffers the least damage from disasters in purely financial terms but the significance of such losses may actually be greater in terms of impact on economic development. Africa's people and economies are heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture, and are therefore vulnerable to rainfall fluctuations. It is usually the poor who suffer most from flood or drought-induced crop failure, because they often cultivate areas that are climatically marginal for crop production and they cannot accumulate reserves for times of hardship.

Both droughts and floods can result in malnutrition and famine, and the associated food imports and dependency on food aid can affect the economic growth potential of affected countries. In Kenya, low reservoir levels resulting from drought and siltation linked to deforestation led to reductions in hydropower generation, necessitating water and power rationing which devastated the country's economy in 1999 and 2000. Losses from power rationing alone were estimated at US$2 million per day, and the cost of unmet electricity demand was estimated at US$400-630 million, equal to 3.8-6.5 per cent of GDP (World Bank 2000). In Mozambique, the costs of floods in 2000 were estimated at US$273 million in physical damage, US$247 million in lost production, US$48 million in lost exports and US$31 million in increased imports (Mozambique National News Agency 2000).