Thousands of human casualties and tens of billions of dollars in economic damage will continue to befall the world's developing countries every two to seven years until an investment is made to improve forecasting and preparedness against El Niño, according to a new international study. The study was developed by teams of researchers working in 16 countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Four United Nations organizations collaborated in the preparation of the study - UNEP, the UN University, WMO and the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction - together with the US-based National Center for Atmospheric Research.

More reliable El Niño forecasts and the ability of governments to react quickly to them are critical. In the absence of such capabilities, vulnerable people, infrastructure and economies in many parts of the world will continue to suffer periodically from El Niño events through floods, fires, drought, cyclones and outbreaks of infectious disease.

Few forecasters came close to forecasting El Niño's onset in mid-1997 and none was able to grasp the magnitude of the 'El Niño of the Century' until it was well under way. National and regional forecasters typically provided predictions of El Niño impacts that in many cases were too general to be used with confidence by national and local decision-makers. Losses from the El Niño in 1997-98 included thousands of deaths and injuries from severe storms, heat waves, fires, floods, frosts and drought. Estimates of El Niño-related damage ranged from US$32 to US$96 billion.