Figure 2-1: Schematic depiction
of the relationship between "well-calibrated" scenarios, the wider range
of "judged" uncertainty that might be elicited through decision analytic
techniques, and the "full" range of uncertainty, which is drawn wider
to represent overconfidence in human judgments. M1 to M4 represent scenarios produced
by four models (e.g., globally averaged temperature increases from an equilibrium
response to doubled CO2 concentrations). This lies within a "full"
range of uncertainty that is not fully identified, much less directly quantified
by existing theoretical or empirical evidence (modified from Jones, 2000).