Climate Change 2001:
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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3.9. State of the Science and Future Needs for Scenario Development

This chapter outlines the current practice of scenario development for climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Methods of scenario construction and application are evolving rapidly, so it is useful to identify which aspects are well developed and which aspects still are deficient.

3.9.1. Well-Developed Features

Some features of scenario development and application are well established and tested:

3.9.2. Deficiencies in Knowledge and Future Needs

There are many shortcomings of current scenario development, but there also are promising new methods that may address these problems and require further attention. These include:

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