Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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Figure 13.9: (a) Projected ranges of regional annual temperature and rainfall change for inland southern Australia in 2100 extrapolated from CSIRO (1996) with temperature sampled randomly across the projected ranges of both global and normalised regional warming and then multiplied together. Projected regional ranges for normalised seasonal rainfall change were randomly sampled, multiplied by the randomly sampled global warming as above, and then averaged. The resulting probability density surface reveals the likelihood of different climate change outcomes for this region; (b) Response surface of irrigation demand for the same region superimposed on projected climate changes as (a), showing the likelihood of exceeding an annual allocation of irrigation water supply. Risk can be calculated by summing the probabilities of all climates below a given level of annual exceedance of annual water supply; e.g., 50%, or exceedance of the annual water limit in at least one of every two years. (Source: Jones, 2000b.)

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