Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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Figure 13.7: Pattern correlations between the decadal ensemble mean temperature (Northern Hemisphere only) from the HadCM2 experiment forced with a 0.5%/yr increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (Gd) and: the scaled ensemble mean pattern (solid line); the four scaled individual ensemble member patterns - average coefficient (dashed line); and the scaled ensemble mean pattern derived from the HadCM2 experiment forced with a 1%/yr increase in greenhouse gas concentrations (Ga) (dotted line). The correlations increase with time as the pattern of greenhouse gas response (the "signal") increasingly dominates the random effects of internal climate variability (the "noise"). The shaded area shows the spread of correlations between the pairs of the individual members of the Gd ensemble; these correlations are lower than those between the realised and scaled patterns above, indicating that the scaled pattern is not due to internal climate variability. (Source: Mitchell et al., 1999.)

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