Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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Figure 10.3: Simulated temperature changes in °C (mean for 2071 to 2100 minus 1990) conditions of 1%/yr increasing CO2 without and with sulphate forcing using experiments undertaken with the AOGCMs of CSIRO Mk2, CCSR/NIES, ECHAM/OPYC, CGCM1 and Hadley Centre (further experimental details are in Table 9.1). Under both forcing scenarios a four-member ensemble is included of the Hadley Centre model, and under the CO2 plus sulphate scenario a three-member ensemble is included for the CGCM1 model. (a) increased CO2 only (GG), (b) increased CO2 and sulphate aerosols (GS). Global model warming values in the CO2 increase-only experiments are 3.07°C for HadCM2 (ensemble average), 3.06°C for CSIRO Mk2, 4.91°C for CGCM1, 3.00°C for CCSR/NIES and 3.02°C for ECHAM/OPYC. Global model warming values for the experiments including sulphate forcing are 2.52°C for HadCM2 (ensemble average), 2.72°C for CSIRO Mk2, 3.80°C for CGCM1 (ensemble average) and 2.64°C for CCSR/NIES (from Giorgi and Francisco, 2000b).

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