Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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1.2 Natural Climate Variations

1.2.1 Natural Forcing of the Climate System

The Sun and the global energy balance
The ultimate source of energy that drives the climate system is radiation from the Sun. About half of the radiation is in the visible short-wave part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The other half is mostly in the near-infrared part, with some in the ultraviolet part of the spectrum. Each square metre of the Earth's spherical surface outside the atmosphere receives an average throughout the year of 342 Watts of solar radiation, 31% of which is immediately reflected back into space by clouds, by the atmosphere, and by the Earth's surface. The remaining 235 Wm-2 is partly absorbed by the atmosphere but most (168 Wm-2) warms the Earth's surface: the land and the ocean. The Earth's surface returns that heat to the atmosphere, partly as infrared radiation, partly as sensible heat and as water vapour which releases its heat when it condenses higher up in the atmosphere. This exchange of energy between surface and atmosphere maintains under present conditions a global mean temperature near the surface of 14°C, decreasing rapidly with height and reaching a mean temperature of -58°C at the top of the troposphere.

For a stable climate, a balance is required between incoming solar radiation and the outgoing radiation emitted by the climate system. Therefore the climate system itself must radiate on average 235 Wm-2 back into space. Details of this energy balance can be seen in Figure 1.2, which shows on the left hand side what happens with the incoming solar radiation, and on the right hand side how the atmosphere emits the outgoing infrared radiation. Any physical object radiates energy of an amount and at wavelengths typical for the temperature of the object: at higher temperatures more energy is radiated at shorter wavelengths. For the Earth to radiate 235 Wm-2, it should radiate at an effective emission temperature of -19°C with typical wavelengths in the infrared part of the spectrum. This is 33°C lower than the average temperature of 14°C at the Earth's surface. To understand why this is so, one must take into account the radiative properties of the atmosphere in the infrared part of the spectrum.


Figure 1.2: The Earth's annual and global mean energy balance. Of the incoming solar radiation, 49% (168 Wm-2) is absorbed by the surface. That heat is returned to the atmosphere as sensible heat, as evapotranspiration (latent heat) and as thermal infrared radiation. Most of this radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere, which in turn emits radiation both up and down. The radiation lost to space comes from cloud tops and atmospheric regions much colder than the surface. This causes a greenhouse effect. Source: Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997: Earth's Annual Global Mean Energy Budget, Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 78, 197-208.

The natural greenhouse effect
The atmosphere contains several trace gases which absorb and emit infrared radiation. These so-called greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth's surface, the atmosphere and clouds, except in a transparent part of the spectrum called the "atmospheric window", as shown in Figure 1.2. They emit in turn infrared radiation in all directions including downward to the Earth's surface. Thus greenhouse gases trap heat within the atmosphere. This mechanism is called the natural greenhouse effect. The net result is an upward transfer of infrared radiation from warmer levels near the Earth's surface to colder levels at higher altitudes. The infrared radiation is effectively radiated back into space from an altitude with a temperature of, on average, -19°C, in balance with the incoming radiation, whereas the Earth's surface is kept at a much higher temperature of on average 14°C. This effective emission temperature of -19°C corresponds in mid-latitudes with a height of approximately 5 km. Note that it is essential for the greenhouse effect that the temperature of the lower atmosphere is not constant (isothermal) but decreases with height. The natural greenhouse effect is part of the energy balance of the Earth, as can be seen schematically in Figure 1.2.

Clouds also play an important role in the Earth's energy balance and in particular in the natural greenhouse effect. Clouds absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus contribute to warming the Earth's surface, just like the greenhouse gases. On the other hand, most clouds are bright reflectors of solar radiation and tend to cool the climate system. The net average effect of the Earth's cloud cover in the present climate is a slight cooling: the reflection of radiation more than compensates for the greenhouse effect of clouds. However this effect is highly variable, depending on height, type and optical properties of clouds.

This introduction to the global energy balance and the natural greenhouse effect is entirely in terms of the global mean and in radiative terms. However, for a full understanding of the greenhouse effect and of its impact on the climate system, dynamical feedbacks and energy transfer processes should also be taken into account. Chapter 7 presents a more detailed analysis and assessment.

Radiative forcing and forcing variability
In an equilibrium climate state the average net radiation at the top of the atmosphere is zero. A change in either the solar radiation or the infrared radiation changes the net radiation. The corresponding imbalance is called "radiative forcing". In practice, for this purpose, the top of the troposphere (the tropopause) is taken as the top of the atmosphere, because the stratosphere adjusts in a matter of months to changes in the radiative balance, whereas the surface-troposphere system adjusts much more slowly, owing principally to the large thermal inertia of the oceans. The radiative forcing of the surface troposphere system is then the change in net irradiance at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to re-adjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values. A detailed explanation and discussion of the radiative forcing concept may be found in Appendix 6.1 to Chapter 6.

External forcings, such as the solar radiation or the large amounts of aerosols ejected by volcanic eruption into the atmosphere, may vary on widely different time-scales, causing natural variations in the radiative forcing. These variations may be negative or positive. In either case the climate system must react to restore the balance. A positive radiative forcing tends to warm the surface on average, whereas a negative radiative forcing tends to cool it. Internal climate processes and feedbacks may also cause variations in the radiative balance by their impact on the reflected solar radiation or emitted infrared radiation, but such variations are not considered part of radiative forcing. Chapter 6 assesses the present knowledge of radiative forcing and its variations, including the anthropogenic change of the atmospheric composition.



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