The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

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Table B-1: Summary of transient coupled AOGCM experiments used in this assessment. The scenario gives the rate of increase of CO2 used; most experiments use 1%/yr, which gives a doubling of CO2 after 70 years (IS92a gives a doubling of equivalent CO2 after 95 years). The ratio of the transient response at the time of doubled CO2 to the equilibrium (long-term) response to doubling CO2 is given if known.

Center
Expt
Reference
Flux Adjusted?
Scenario
Warming at Doubling
Equilibrium Warming
Ratio (%)

BMRC
a
Power et al. (1993), Colman et al. (1995)
No
1%/yr
1.35
2.1
63
CCC
b
G. Boer (pers. comm.)
Yes
1%/yr
-
3.5
COLA
c
E. Schneider (pers. comm.)
No
1%/yr
2.0
-
CSIRO
d
Gordon and O’Farrell (1997)
Yes
1%/yr
2.0
4.3
47
GFDL
e
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
Yes
0.25%/yr
2.6
3.7
 
f
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
Yes
0.50%/yr
2.4
3.7
 
g
Manabe et al. (1991, 1992)
Yes
1%/yr
2.2
3.7
 
h
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
Yes
2%/yr
1.8
3.7
 
i
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
Yes
4%/yr
1.5
3.7
 
j
Stouffer (pers. comm.)
Yes
1%/yr
-
-
GISS
k
Russell et al. (1995), Miller and Russell (1995)
No
1%/yr
1.4
-
IAP
l1
Keming et al. (1994)
Yes
1%/yr
2.5
-
MPI
m2
Cubasch et al. (1992, 1994b), Hasselmann et al. (1993), Santer et al. (1994)
Yes
IPCC90A
1.3
2.6
50
 
n
Cubasch et al. (1992), Hasselmann et al. (1993), Santer et al. (1994)
Yes
IPCC90D
na
2.6
 
o
Yes
IPCC90A
1.5
-
 
x3
Hasselmann et al. (1995)
Yes
IPCC90A
na
2.6
 
y4
Hasselmann et al. (1995)
Yes
Aerosols
na
2.6
MRI
p
Tokioka et al. (1995)
Yes
1%/yr
1.6
-
NCAR
q
Washington and Meehl (1989)
No
1%/yr*
2.3
4.0
58
 
r5
Washington and Meehl (1993, 1996), Meehl and Washington (1996)
No
1%/yr
3.8
4.6
83
UKMO
s
Murphy (1995a,b), Murphy and Mitchell (1995)
Yes
1%/yr
1.7
2.7
64
 
t6
Johns et al. (1997), Keen (1995)
Yes
1%/yr
1.7
2.5
68
 
w7
Johns et al. (1997), Tett et al. (1997), Mitchell et al. (1995b), Mitchell and Johns (1997)
Yes
1%/yr
na
2.5
 
z8
Johns et al. (1997), Tett et al. (1997), Mitchell et al. (1995b), Mitchell and Johns (1997)
Yes
Aerosols
na
2.5

na = not available
Numbers in italics indicate simulations with other than a 1%/yr increase in CO2.
* 1%/yr of current CO2 concentrations.
1 Polar deep ocean quantities constrained.
2 Three additional 50-year runs, each from different initial conditions.
3 CO2 from IPCC scenario 90A after greenhouse gas forcing from 1880 to 1990.
4 As (1) with a representation of aerosol forcing, with increases after 1990 based on IS92a.
5 Equilibrium model excluded sea ice dynamics. Coupled model has warmer than observed tropical sea surface temperatures and a vigorous ice albedo feedback (Washington and Meehl, 1996) contributing to the high sensitivity.
6 Average of three experiments from different initial conditions.
7 CO2 increased by 1%/yr from 1990. Observed greenhouse gas forcing used from 1860 to 1990.
8 As (7) with a representation of aerosol forcing, with increases of aerosol and greenhouse gases after 1990 based on IS92a.

 

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