The Regional Impacts of Climate Change

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11.1.3. Settlement, Population, and Economy

Population estimates for the year 2025 for each country in Tropical Asia are given in Table 11-1, based on figures from WRI (1996); with the exception of Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines, the populations of these countries are predominantly rural. By 2025, the region's total population is expected to grow from the present 1.6 billion to about 2.4 billion, with the largest increases expected in urban areas. In 1995, 6 of the world's 25 largest cities were located in Tropical Asia: Bombay (#5), Calcutta (#9), Jakarta (#11), Delhi (#17), Manila (#21), and Dhaka (#23); in terms of average annual growth rates during 1990-95, Dhaka was first (5.74%), Jakarta third (4.35%), and Bombay fifth (4.22%) among the 25 cities (see Table 11-2). In these and other cities of the region, rapid urban growth has been accompanied by a proliferation of slums and squatter settlements without access to basic infrastructure, clean water, and sanitation, with associated health risks (UNEP, 1997).


Table 11-2: Cities in Tropical Asia included in world's 25 largest cities, 1995.

City
Population (millions)
Rank in World Cities
Average Annual Growth Rate (1990-95)
Rank in World Cities

Bombay
15.1
5
4.22
5
Calcutta
11.7
9
1.67
16
Jakarta
11.5
11
4.35
3
Delhi
9.9
17
3.80
6
Manila
9.3
21
3.05
8
Dhaka
7.8
23
5.74
1

Source: WRI, 1996-Data Table 1.1.


Rapid economic development and industrialization have characterized the economies of the region in recent years. In some countries (particularly in southeast Asia), there has been considerable expansion in the use of natural resources-including the exploitation of forests and fisheries, which has resulted in increasing environmental degradation.



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