The vulnerability of ecosystems and socioeconomic sectors will be affected by their baseline or initial conditions and by the other stresses to which they may be subjected. For this reason, it is important to examine the vulnerability of these systems and sectors in the context of existing and projected developments. To provide a consistent set of socioeconomic and resource-use data, the Technical Support Unit collated data requested by the authors from, among other sources, World Resources 1996-97 (WRI/UNEP/UNDP/World Bank, 1996) (see Annex D for a complete list of sources). These data include information on:
It is important to note that these data are intended simply to provide a consistent set of assumptions on important social and economic factors that will influence demands on environmental goods and services (and hence the stresses to which environmental systems may be subjected), as well as the human and financial capacity of societies to adapt to potential climate change. They are not intended to be a definitive source of data on social and economic trends in any particular country. Projections of socioeconomic conditions such as population, incomes, land uses, technological change, economic activity by sector, demands for water and other resources, and other variables are at least as uncertain as regional projections of climate change; as with regional climate information, they should be used as scenarios of future conditions, not treated as predictions.
It is important for policymakers to be able to put climate change impacts in the context of other social, economic, and technological conditions, such as:
Thus, each chapter in this report has a section on "integrated assessment," which attempts to draw together the interactions among sectors, countries, and forces of change. Integrated assessment has been tackled at various levels:
Some case study examples have been highlighted in the following chapters, but integrated assessment is in its infancy, and the development of new integrated scenarios of socioeconomic changes, emissions of greenhouse gases, and potential changes in climate was not possible in the time available for preparation of this report. This type of analysis is a priority for the IPCC, however; it currently is the focus of two related activities: a special report on emissions scenarios and a task group on climate scenarios for impact analysis. We expect that the Third Assessment Report (TAR) will be based on such an integrated set of scenarios.
The gaps and deficiencies revealed in this special report suggest some priority areas for further work to help policymakers in their difficult task. These needs include:
Clearly, impact assessments have not been made across all potentially affected sectors and regions, so many potential costs and benefits remain to be examined and, where possible, quantified. Nevertheless, we believe the present report summarizes a substantial body of work that, if carefully interpreted, may provide useful guidance to policymakers.
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