Table 3: Estimate of accounted average annual carbon stock change for ARD activities. The IPCC and FAO Definitional Scenarios and three accounting approaches under the FAO Definitional Scenario have been applied to illustrate with the available data the effect of different accounting approaches. Other Definitional Scenarios described in Chapter 3, Table 3-4, have not been included in this analysis. The figures and ranges of values in the table are illustrative, provide first-order estimates, and may not encompass the full range of uncertainties. Negative numbers indicate carbon emissions and positive numbers carbon removals. For details, see Table 3-17 in Chapter 3. | ||||||||
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Estimated Range of Accounted Average Annual Stock
Change 2008-2012 (Mt C yr-1)
Includes carbon in aboveground and below-ground biomass, excludes carbon in soils and in dead organic matter |
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Area Change (Mha yr-1)
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Region |
Activity
|
AR Average
Rate of Uptake (t C ha-1 yr-1); D Average Stock (t C ha-1) |
Post-Harvest
Regeneration |
Conversion
between Non-Forest and Forest |
FAO Definitional
Scenario, Land-Based I Accounting |
FAO Definitional
Scenario, Land-Based II Accounting |
FAO Definitional
Scenario, Activity-Based Accounting |
IPCC
Definitional Scenario |
|
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Boreal Region |
AR
D Total ARD |
0.4 to 1.2
35 |
3.1
|
0.1
0.5 |
-209 to -162
-18 -227 to -180 |
-56 to -8
-18 -74 to -26 |
5 to 48
-18 -13 to 30 |
0 to 2
-18 -18 to -16 |
Temperate Region Annex I |
AR
D Total ARD |
1.5 to 4.5
60 |
5.4
|
0.5
1.2 |
-550 to -81
-72 -622 to -153 |
-134 to 303
-72 -206 to 231 |
81 to 519
-72 9 to 447 |
7 to 44
-72 -65 to -28 |
Annex I Total |
AR
D Total ARD |
8.5
|
0.6
1.7 |
-759 to -243
-90 -849 to -333 |
-190 to 295
-90 -280 to 205 |
87 to 573
-90 -3 to 483 |
7 to 46
-90 -83 to -44 |
|
Temperate Region Total |
AR
D Total ARD |
1.5 to 4.5
60 |
n/a
2.1 |
1.9
126 n/a |
n/a
126 n/a |
n/a
126 n/a |
n/a
126 -99 to 41 |
|
Tropical Region Total |
AR
D Total ARD |
4 to 8
120 |
n/a
|
2.6 |
n/a
-1644 n/a |
n/a
-1644 n/a |
n/a
-1644 n/a |
170 to 415
-1644 -1474 to -1229 |
Global Total (summing regional totals) |
AR
D Total ARD |
n/a
|
4.6
16.3 |
n/a
-1788 n/a |
n/a
-1788 n/a |
n/a
-1788 n/a |
197 to 584
-1788 -1591 to -1204 |
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Notes: n/a = no number is provided because the area of regeneration after harvest in the tropical region and part of the temperate region was not available. In addition, regeneration after selective cutting, as it is often used in the tropics, is difficult to capture with the FAO Definitional Scenario. It is assumed that recent area conversion rates ["recent" = for Annex I Parties AR late 1980s/early 1990s and for D 1980s (except for Canada and Russian Federation early 1990s); ARD in other regions 1980s] have applied since 1990, and will continue to do so until 2012. The IPCC Definitional Scenario includes transitions between forest and non-forest land uses under Article 3.3. For the purposes of this table, it is assumed that not only planting, but also other forms of stand establishment such as natural establishment, are considered AR activities. The FAO Definitional Scenario includes the harvest/regeneration cycle, because regeneration is defined as reforestation. Within the FAO Definitional Scenario, three accounting approaches are distinguished (see paragraph 25 and Section 3.3.2). Uptake rates are intended to span the range within which the average value for each region is expected to be. The lower bound of the estimated average annual stock change corresponds to the lower uptake rate in AR and the higher bound to the higher uptake rate. Trees have been assumed to grow according to a sigmoidal growth curve. Estimated area for conversion between non-forest and forest should be regarded as an upper limit for the temperate region total and the tropical region, because some countries may have reported plantations for 1990 but not for 1980, and because some of the plantations may not qualify as resulting from AR activities under the IPCC Definitional Scenario. Also, for tropical countries, the deforestation estimates are very uncertain and could be in error by as much as �50%. | ||||||||
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