Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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Technical Summary: Figure TS-1

Figure TS-1: Global energy-related and industrial CO2 emissions - historical development and future scenarios, shown as an index (1990 = 1). The median (50 th ), the 5 th , and 95 th percentiles of the frequency distribution are also shown. The statistics associated with scenarios from the literature do not imply probability of occurrence (e.g., the frequency distribution of the scenarios may be influenced by the use of IS92a as a reference for many subsequent studies). The emissions paths indicate a wide range of future emissions. The range is also large in the base year 1990 and is indicated by an "error" bar. To separate the variation due to base-year specification from different future paths, emissions are indexed for the year 1990, when actual global energy-related and industrial CO2 emissions were about 6 GtC. The coverage of CO2 emissions sources may vary across the 256 different scenarios from the database included in the figure. The scenario samples used vary across the time steps (for 1990 256 scenarios, for 2020 and 2030 247, for 2050 211, and for 2100 190 scenarios). Also shown, as vertical bars on the right of the figure, are the ranges of emissions in 2100 of IS92 scenarios and for scenarios from the literature that apparently include additional climate initiatives (designated as "intervention" scenarios emissions range), those that do not ("non-intervention"), and those that cannot be assigned to either of these two categories ("non-classified"). This classification is based on the subjective evaluation of the scenarios in the database by the members of the writing team and is explained in Chapter 2. Data sources: Morita and Lee, 1998a, 1998b; Nakic´enovic´ et al., 1998.

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