IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1HIGH MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5293 6100 6874 7618 8122 8484 8703 8623 8430 8126 7621 7137
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.7 27.4 37.5 51.0 73.0 100.7 134.0 172.6 211.9 251.7 289.7 330.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 45 54 62 69 71 70 65 47 34 28 28 27
Liquids 121 118 117 119 113 118 132 152 170 187 197 208
Gas 52 59 64 67 64 58 50 55 59 63 65 67
Electricity 35 49 69 97 143 189 235 281 322 360 370 381
Others 0 0 16 47 73 107 148 167 182 194 201 209
Total 253 279 328 400 465 542 630 701 768 832 861 891
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 88 106 122 134 146 153 155 119 94 80 80 81
Oil 131 127 125 127 116 118 133 158 179 197 210 222
Gas 70 79 118 186 261 310 334 371 399 419 429 438
Nuclear 24 23 26 31 35 41 48 49 46 41 43 46
Biomass 0 5 11 20 36 54 74 81 81 75 75 74
Other Renewables 24 24 28 33 41 68 113 169 224 278 265 253
Total 336 365 430 532 635 743 857 946 1023 1089 1101 1114
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.5 5.0 6.4 8.0 9.2 10.3 11.2 12.0 12.8
Oil 0.1 1.4 2.7 3.9 5.1 6.3 7.5 9.1 10.8 12.6 14.7 16.7
Gas 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.8 8.6 11.7 15.4 19.2 23.3 27.5 31.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 159.3 255.8 366.8 485.8 607.1 729.8 852.6 972.4 1086.5 1194.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1472 1467 1455 1435 1373 1284 1167 992 833 691 592 493
Grasslands 3209 3349 3591 3935 4239 4439 4537 4270 3979 3665 3479 3293
Energy Biomass 0 0 6 18 47 83 125 125 109 79 70 61
Forest 4173 4215 4144 3963 3720 3568 3506 3931 4339 4731 4805 4879
Others 4310 4134 3968 3813 3785 3790 3829 3847 3904 3999 4219 4438
Total 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164 13164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.81 9.15 10.49 11.28 11.93 12.00 12.15 12.40 12.81 13.22
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.01 1.34 1.22 0.82 0.25 0.36 0.05 -0.66 -1.73 -2.79
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.82 10.48 11.70 12.09 12.18 12.35 12.21 11.74 11.08 10.43
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 352 398 443 489 521 524 529 536 558 579
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.1 9.5 11.0 12.9 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.8 18.2 19.7
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 73.4 75.6 67.0 56.1 42.8 29.8 21.4 17.6 17.7 17.9
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
OECD90 - B1HIGH MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 838 908 965 1007 1024 1066 1081 1084 1090 1098 1105 1112
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.3 20.5 25.1 30.1 32.0 38.8 44.6 50.2 56.4 63.1 71.0 79.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 12 10 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2
Liquids 72 66 57 45 37 20 16 17 18 19 20 21
Gas 27 33 34 32 29 20 14 15 16 17 18 19
Electricity 22 25 27 26 25 24 23 26 29 32 33 34
Others 0 0 12 37 43 61 73 75 77 80 83 85
Total 130 136 141 146 140 129 131 135 141 150 155 160
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 40 41 36 23 23 22 24 20 16 11 12 13
Oil 76 71 61 47 38 18 14 15 17 20 22 23
Gas 34 42 60 87 89 91 89 92 97 101 104 107
Nuclear 20 14 10 7 6 4 4 4 4 3 4 4
Biomass 0 2 4 7 8 13 17 17 16 15 15 15
Other Renewables 12 11 11 10 10 10 13 17 21 26 26 25
Total 182 181 180 181 173 159 160 165 171 177 183 188
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6
Oil 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.7
Gas 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.1 3.5 4.4 5.3 6.2 7.2 8.2 9.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.4 94.6 125.4 153.3 178.1 202.0 225.7 248.5 269.9 289.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 408 411 406 394 382 340 303 258 219 187 156 125
Grasslands 796 822 866 929 955 1014 1028 983 937 890 841 793
Energy Biomass 0 0 4 13 17 30 42 38 34 28 27 26
Forest 921 931 923 897 881 850 853 941 1017 1079 1110 1140
Others 998 959 924 890 888 888 897 902 916 938 989 1039
Total 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123 3123
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.15 2.99 2.85 2.54 2.46 2.44 2.44 2.47 2.56 2.65
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.18 0.15 0.03 -0.07 -0.05 -0.11 -0.24 -0.50 -0.75
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.26 3.17 3.01 2.57 2.39 2.39 2.33 2.22 2.06 1.90
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 82 91 96 114 127 137 143 145 153 161
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 12.1 5.1 3.6 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
REF - B1HIGH MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 428 425 426 433 434 431 423 408 392 374 357 340
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.0 3.0 4.1 5.3 7.1 9.2 11.4 13.4 15.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 8 7 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1
Liquids 18 11 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6
Gas 19 15 13 13 11 9 7 6 6 5 5 5
Electricity 6 8 11 16 20 23 24 24 23 23 22 21
Others 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
Total 56 44 40 44 45 44 43 41 39 36 35 33
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 9 6 5 5 5
Oil 20 13 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
Gas 26 20 20 28 31 30 24 22 19 17 16 15
Nuclear 3 4 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2
Biomass 0 1 1 2 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3
Other Renewables 3 3 4 5 6 8 13 16 18 19 17 16
Total 70 57 56 67 69 70 69 62 57 53 50 46
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 19.9 29.4 39.7 49.8 58.8 66.6 73.5 78.7 82.2 83.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 284 293 300 304 297 282 259 211 169 131 115 99
Grasslands 395 410 453 523 588 631 652 576 502 428 417 406
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 2 5 7 7 3 1 0 0 0
Forest 1007 1016 997 948 889 857 851 973 1081 1177 1163 1150
Others 691 657 628 602 598 600 609 613 624 642 682 722
Total 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377 2377
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.84 0.95 0.95 0.91 0.82 0.65 0.53 0.46 0.44 0.43
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.11 0.09 -0.04 -0.19 -0.34
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.87 1.02 1.04 0.97 0.82 0.75 0.62 0.42 0.26 0.09
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 47 63 72 82 92 86 86 90 100 111
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.1 6.5 3.8 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ASIA - B1HIGH MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2790 3226 3608 3937 4115 4210 4219 4062 3852 3589 3245 2919
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 3.1 6.4 11.5 21.7 34.1 48.6 63.3 77.6 91.5 103.9 117.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 20 29 40 51 53 53 49 35 25 20 19 18
Liquids 14 19 25 33 39 47 54 60 66 70 73 75
Gas 2 5 8 11 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 16
Electricity 4 11 22 40 68 96 123 143 161 176 179 182
Others 0 0 2 6 12 21 33 38 41 43 43 44
Total 40 64 97 140 185 229 271 290 308 326 330 335
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 26 43 62 84 92 93 87 65 49 41 40 39
Oil 16 20 27 36 41 47 55 63 70 74 78 81
Gas 3 9 23 45 87 115 129 140 146 147 147 147
Nuclear 1 4 8 13 17 21 27 26 24 21 21 22
Biomass 0 2 5 9 16 24 32 35 34 31 30 29
Other Renewables 3 4 5 7 11 26 52 80 107 132 124 116
Total 49 81 129 194 264 327 381 408 430 446 440 434
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.5 6.9
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.9 5.6
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.5 4.9 6.3 7.8 9.2 10.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.8 74.9 117.9 167.8 220.7 272.8 322.1 368.9 413.9 457.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 389 399 406 408 395 373 343 296 254 215 186 158
Grasslands 508 524 554 599 636 663 680 666 646 620 593 565
Energy Biomass 0 0 1 4 16 30 44 44 36 22 16 10
Forest 1168 1144 1107 1058 1020 999 995 1056 1126 1207 1268 1329
Others 664 633 605 581 578 580 587 591 602 620 659 697
Total 2729 2700 2674 2650 2645 2645 2650 2653 2664 2683 2721 2759
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.58 3.61 4.51 5.06 5.27 4.99 4.79 4.68 4.71 4.75
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.19 0.24 0.23 0.18 0.08 0.07 0.01 -0.12 -0.27 -0.43
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.77 3.86 4.74 5.24 5.36 5.06 4.79 4.56 4.44 4.31
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 133 144 155 160 161 157 155 154 151 148
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.8 6.3
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 34.7 43.5 37.6 29.4 19.1 11.7 7.1 5.3 5.3 5.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN
ALM - B1HIGH MINICAM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1236 1541 1876 2241 2531 2778 2980 3068 3096 3064 2913 2766
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.8 4.6 7.4 14.3 23.7 35.6 52.0 68.6 85.6 101.5 118.7
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) na na na na na na na na na na na na
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 7 6 5 5 5
Liquids 17 21 26 33 37 44 55 68 80 91 99 106
Gas 5 7 9 12 15 17 16 19 22 25 26 27
Electricity 3 6 10 15 30 47 65 88 109 129 137 145
Others 0 0 1 4 11 24 40 52 63 70 75 79
Total 27 36 50 70 101 139 185 235 280 321 341 362
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 6 8 11 16 22 28 26 24 22 23 25
Oil 20 22 27 34 38 46 57 72 85 96 104 112
Gas 7 9 16 27 52 74 93 117 137 153 161 169
Nuclear 0 2 3 5 7 10 13 15 15 15 16 17
Biomass 0 1 2 3 7 13 20 25 27 26 27 27
Other Renewables 5 6 8 12 15 23 36 57 78 101 98 96
Total 35 46 65 91 136 188 246 311 366 413 429 446
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.5 6.5
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.5 4.7 6.1 7.7 9.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.1 56.9 83.7 114.8 149.5 188.3 231.4 276.3 320.5 362.8
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 391 363 342 329 311 289 263 226 191 157 134 111
Grasslands 1510 1594 1719 1884 2033 2131 2177 2045 1895 1727 1628 1528
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 5 16 33 39 38 30 27 25
Forest 3641 3592 3492 3343 3203 3111 3065 3227 3415 3629 3753 3876
Others 1957 1884 1812 1740 1724 1722 1736 1740 1762 1799 1890 1980
Total 7499 7432 7365 7296 7276 7269 7273 7277 7300 7343 7431 7520
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.24 1.59 2.18 2.78 3.38 3.92 4.40 4.79 5.09 5.40
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.68 0.84 0.74 0.54 0.23 0.23 0.06 -0.27 -0.77 -1.27
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.93 2.43 2.92 3.31 3.62 4.15 4.46 4.53 4.32 4.13
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 90 101 120 134 142 143 145 147 154 160
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.9 6.5
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 13.7 14.5 13.7 12.9 12.1 9.1 7.0 5.6 5.3 5.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO
NMVOC Mt
NOx  MtN