IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - B1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.2 52.1 73.1 100.7 135.6 171.6 208.5 249.8 290.0 328.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.3 44.6 61.6 82.2 108.4 140.0 171.8 204.1 242.5 281.3 318.8
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 27 22 16 10 8 6 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 42 52 61 59 55 39 23 18 9 3 2 1
Liquids 111 123 155 185 214 239 243 220 190 153 131 114
Gas 41 47 61 71 74 73 63 53 47 45 39 31
Electricity 35 44 61 87 117 148 172 194 204 213 209 200
Others 8 10 18 33 52 75 98 123 136 144 138 124
Total 275 303 379 450 522 581 604 608 585 556 520 469
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 91 109 110 97 71 37 21 15 16 18 22
Oil 128 155 172 189 203 198 192 161 132 95 64 46
Gas 71 84 119 161 221 278 297 302 281 267 232 215
Nuclear 7 8 11 15 20 27 36 42 47 48 46 41
Biomass 46 45 55 70 89 111 121 129 150 174 215 235
Other Renewables 8 13 23 41 62 103 156 211 239 248 239 197
Total 352 395 488 586 692 788 837 865 865 848 813 755
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.0 5.0 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.8
Oil 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6 10.6 12.5 14.1 15.4 16.4 17.0
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.6 9.4 12.3 15.3 18.2 20.8 23.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 160.4 251.5 343.6 436.2 525.3 606.8 679.2 741.9 794.0 837.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429
Grasslands 3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 3547 3591 3635 3668 3688 3709
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 59 137 196 254 260 266 261 243 225
Forest 4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4405 4475 4522 4570 4619 4669 4719
Others 3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3386 3226 3133 3040 2968 2918 2868
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.26 9.19 9.93 9.91 9.24 8.36 7.32 6.36 5.24 4.68 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.79 -0.03 -0.65 -0.66 -0.67 -0.62 -0.57 -0.57 -0.61 -0.65 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.05 9.16 9.27 9.25 8.57 7.74 6.75 5.79 4.63 4.04
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 356 386 421 442 453 436 424 392 334 279 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 65.6 55.2 47.5 38.7 31.0 25.4 20.2 16.5 13.9 12.2
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43
CO MtCO 879 877 1001 1120 1233 1326 1331 1268 1288 1307 1409 1436
NMVOC Mt 139 141 164 180 183 180 175 154 141 121 93 70
NOx  MtN 31 32 38 44 47 46 40 33 27 23 20 17
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
OECD90 - B1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 26.0 32.4 38.3 43.9 49.9 55.4 59.8 66.3 73.9 82.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.7 22.4 28.1 33.3 38.3 43.6 48.5 52.5 58.4 65.1 72.7
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 69 75 73 69 65 61 57 52 44 42 39
Gas 22 28 34 35 33 29 21 14 10 9 7 5
Electricity 22 28 35 43 49 53 54 56 57 60 61 62
Others 1 1 2 5 7 8 9 12 13 13 12 11
Total 124 136 152 159 159 154 146 139 131 126 123 117
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 33 36 37 31 14 5 4 2 1 1 0
Oil 72 85 83 73 62 53 44 36 29 21 15 12
Gas 33 45 57 68 80 87 84 75 73 77 76 78
Nuclear 6 7 8 10 11 14 21 25 27 24 20 15
Biomass 6 8 10 13 15 18 20 26 31 39 50 53
Other Renewables 4 5 8 13 17 22 24 27 29 31 32 32
Total 159 183 202 213 215 207 198 192 191 192 193 190
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.8
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.7 95.5 126.4 153.6 176.1 195.1 211.9 227.1 240.7 253.0
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 381 380 378 376 374 370 366 361 357 354 353 352
Grasslands 760 765 772 779 787 809 832 862 893 912 918 924
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 10 23 33 44 45 46 45 42 39
Forest 1050 1059 1074 1094 1117 1133 1149 1154 1159 1167 1179 1192
Others 838 826 805 770 728 684 639 607 574 551 537 522
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.40 3.35 3.13 2.60 2.16 1.84 1.63 1.50 1.35 1.31 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.13 -0.16 -0.14 -0.12 -0.08 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.12 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.32 3.22 2.97 2.46 2.04 1.76 1.58 1.46 1.27 1.19
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 73 70 67 62 57 54 52 51 50 51 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 8.9 2.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
CO MtCO 179 161 177 181 160 145 125 123 121 122 139 134
NMVOC Mt 42 36 38 36 31 27 23 21 21 20 14 9
NOx  MtN 13 12 14 14 13 10 7 5 3 2 1 1
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
REF - B1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.8 4.3 6.2 8.2 10.3 12.8 15.3 18.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 2.6 3.3 4.3 5.3 6.4 8.2 10.3 12.8 15.3 18.1
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 10 10 13 15 17 18 16 13 10 9 8
Gas 14 10 11 10 9 8 6 4 4 4 3 2
Electricity 6 5 6 7 9 12 14 15 15 15 15 15
Others 7 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7
Total 50 36 37 40 43 46 47 45 41 39 35 32
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 12 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2
Oil 20 14 13 15 17 16 16 15 11 9 6 5
Gas 27 21 25 28 33 40 43 49 53 48 40 31
Nuclear 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Biomass 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 6 9
Other Renewables 1 1 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 9 10
Total 70 51 49 53 59 67 70 74 74 69 63 57
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.0 28.2 35.6 42.9 50.0 57.4 65.7 73.7 80.4 85.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 268 266 266 266 265 265 264 264 263 263 263 262
Grasslands 341 362 364 366 368 370 372 374 376 378 380 382
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 9 20 29 37 38 39 38 35 33
Forest 966 951 934 933 934 954 973 983 993 1005 1018 1031
Others 701 696 711 702 688 659 630 617 604 592 580 568
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.85 0.85 0.87 0.92 0.97 1.03 1.02 0.90 0.73 0.56 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 -0.11 -0.12 -0.20 -0.28 -0.23 -0.17 -0.15 -0.14 -0.14 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.89 0.73 0.75 0.72 0.69 0.81 0.85 0.75 0.59 0.42
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 40 40 41 43 43 39 37 33 30 26 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.1 4.6 3.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4
CO MtCO 69 41 45 46 51 60 65 60 50 38 34 30
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 17 20 23 27 29 31 28 21 14
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
ASIA - B1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 4.8 8.7 15.1 24.9 37.9 51.4 64.8 78.7 91.7 103.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.2 12.0 17.3 24.6 34.1 46.1 57.4 67.7 79.3 91.7 103.1
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 16 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 33 47 48 46 32 19 14 6 2 1 0
Liquids 13 22 35 50 65 82 87 78 68 55 45 38
Gas 2 3 7 11 11 14 11 10 10 10 10 10
Electricity 4 6 11 19 30 42 49 57 60 64 63 58
Others 1 2 6 11 18 27 34 45 49 52 50 45
Total 62 82 117 146 175 199 202 204 193 182 170 150
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 42 57 58 51 44 24 13 8 8 9 10
Oil 15 26 38 52 66 68 72 61 52 37 25 17
Gas 3 5 13 24 36 51 53 53 50 46 34 27
Nuclear 0 1 1 3 5 9 11 13 14 17 17 17
Biomass 24 22 26 30 39 49 54 61 63 67 72 73
Other Renewables 1 3 6 12 20 35 54 77 83 85 87 74
Total 74 98 141 178 217 256 268 278 270 260 244 218
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.1
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 41.7 69.7 99.4 131.0 161.6 187.6 208.6 225.6 238.9 249.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 438 435 435 435 434 434 434 434 433 433 433 433
Grasslands 608 606 609 612 614 617 619 622 625 628 631 634
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 12 28 40 52 54 55 54 50 46
Forest 535 525 518 535 551 557 563 578 593 604 610 616
Others 583 598 602 571 536 516 496 477 458 446 441 436
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.56 3.01 3.27 3.33 2.93 2.41 2.06 1.69 1.29 1.06 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 -0.17 -0.18 -0.10 -0.03 -0.10 -0.17 -0.18 -0.14 -0.10 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.75 2.84 3.09 3.23 2.90 2.31 1.89 1.51 1.15 0.96
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 145 164 183 196 201 194 189 172 141 109 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 31.8 29.9 26.3 19.3 13.1 9.3 6.7 4.4 3.1 2.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16
CO MtCO 235 270 345 421 511 597 632 621 603 587 583 559
NMVOC Mt 33 37 48 56 58 59 57 46 40 32 25 20
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 14 16 17 15 12 10 8 7 6
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data
ALM - B1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.3 17.0 27.6 41.6 56.7 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.6 12.8 20.1 30.6 44.0 57.8 73.6 92.0 109.1 124.8
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 11 11 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 4 5 6 7 7 4 4 3 1 1 1
Liquids 17 22 34 48 64 75 77 69 57 44 35 29
Gas 4 6 10 15 22 22 25 25 23 22 18 14
Electricity 3 5 9 17 29 42 54 66 72 74 70 65
Others 0 1 5 10 18 32 46 56 65 69 67 61
Total 39 49 73 105 145 182 210 220 219 209 192 170
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 4 8 10 12 10 6 3 4 6 7 9
Oil 21 30 39 49 59 62 59 50 40 29 18 12
Gas 8 12 24 42 73 100 116 125 106 96 81 79
Nuclear 0 0 1 2 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 8
Biomass 14 14 18 25 33 42 44 39 54 65 88 101
Other Renewables 2 4 7 13 22 42 72 100 121 125 111 81
Total 49 65 96 141 201 259 301 321 330 327 313 290
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.6
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.1 7.0 7.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.9 58.1 82.3 108.7 137.6 166.6 193.0 215.5 234.0 249.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
Cropland 371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382
Grasslands 1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 29 66 93 121 124 127 124 116 107
Forest 1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1862 1880
Others 1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1527 1461 1432 1403 1379 1361 1342
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.46 1.98 2.66 3.05 3.18 3.08 2.61 2.27 1.86 1.75 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.62 0.38 -0.19 -0.22 -0.25 -0.22 -0.19 -0.20 -0.24 -0.29 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.08 2.36 2.46 2.83 2.94 2.86 2.43 2.07 1.62 1.46
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 98 112 130 141 151 149 146 135 114 93 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.8 15.4 14.8 13.8 12.9 11.1 8.9 7.1 5.4 4.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12
SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14
CO MtCO 396 404 434 472 510 523 509 465 513 559 654 714
NMVOC Mt 48 55 63 70 74 71 68 58 50 42 33 27
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 12 14 15 14 12 11 11 10 9
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data