IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A2 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5282 6170 7188 8206 9170 10715 11296 12139 12587 13828 14743 15068
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.1 25.2 31.9 40.5 51.2 72.3 81.6 101.9 114.1 159.3 218.4 242.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 52 51 58 65 61 58 55 58 61 63 65 67
Liquids 117 150 187 246 275 304 334 371 408 469 552 635
Gas 49 53 65 92 124 155 187 209 231 246 254 262
Electricity 41 48 63 85 125 164 204 247 290 343 405 468
Others
Total 257 303 373 488 585 682 779 884 990 1120 1276 1431
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 92 90 106 129 184 239 294 415 536 658 781 904
Oil 134 172 220 291 270 249 228 148 69 23 12 0
Gas 71 74 89 126 176 225 275 297 319 330 331 331
Nuclear 8 13 14 17 32 47 62 87 112 147 190 234
Biomass 0 0 6 12 32 52 71 92 112 130 146 162
Other Renewables 8 11 15 20 27 34 42 49 56 65 75 86
Total 313 360 450 595 720 846 971 1088 1204 1353 1535 1717
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.9 9.5 13.1 17.9 31.1 38.3 46.8
Oil 0.0 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.0 11.6 13.9 15.7 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.2
Gas 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.2 8.7 11.6 14.7 17.9 21.3 24.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 163.1 272.2 407.1 561.1 728.6 911.5 1111.7 1332.2 1579.1 1855.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC -1.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.46 11.01 13.53 15.01 16.49 18.49 20.49 22.97 25.94 28.91
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.12 1.25 1.19 1.06 0.93 0.67 0.40 0.25 0.21 0.18
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.58 12.25 14.72 16.07 17.43 19.16 20.89 23.22 26.15 29.09
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 370 424 486 542 598 654 711 770 829 889
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.1 9.6 10.7 11.3 12.0 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.5
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 74.7 99.5 112.5 109.0 105.4 89.6 73.7 64.7 62.5 60.3
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 785 292 258 291 312 384 457 549 662 753
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 41 51 64 77 92 113 129 148 168 178
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 50 64 75 89 104 122 129 135 153 165
CO MtCO 879 877 977 1075 1259 1344 1428 1545 1662 1842 2084 2326
NMVOC Mt 139 141 155 179 202 214 225 238 251 275 309 342
NOx  MtN 31 32 39 50 61 66 71 75 80 87 98 109
OECD90 - A2 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 851 923 975 1027 1072 1131 1151 1202 1228 1323 1451 1496
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 15.3 18.7 22.3 26.0 30.0 37.1 39.9 46.3 50.0 63.1 80.7 87.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 16
Liquids 67 85 93 99 97 94 92 95 98 109 128 146
Gas 27 30 29 33 37 41 46 49 52 54 57 60
Electricity 23 27 33 39 46 52 59 69 79 93 112 130
Others
Total 130 154 167 184 193 202 211 227 244 272 312 352
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 33 29 32 37 55 74 92 115 138 164 191 218
Oil 76 94 107 116 94 72 49 31 12 2 1 0
Gas 34 37 37 43 52 61 69 72 74 75 76 77
Nuclear 7 10 11 11 14 17 20 27 34 45 58 72
Biomass 0 0 1 4 10 16 23 23 23 24 26 29
Other Renewables 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 15 17 20 23
Total 155 176 194 220 235 250 266 281 296 326 372 418
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.9 4.0 5.3 6.8 8.6 10.6
Oil 0.0 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.8 6.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.7 101.0 142.9 187.8 234.4 282.7 333.0 386.3 445.2 510.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.51 3.96 4.42 4.58 4.74 4.93 5.11 5.55 6.23 6.91
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.51 3.96 4.42 4.58 4.74 4.93 5.11 5.55 6.23 6.91
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 78 84 91 98 105 113 121 133 149 166
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 7.9 8.7 9.3 9.5 9.8 9.3 8.8 9.1 10.5 11.8
HFC MtC eq. 19 57 107 103 111 116 125 130 135 142 151 160
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 13 15 17
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 25 28 29 29 28 26 20 12 14 16
CO MtCO 179 161 168 175 175 158 141 147 154 174 209 243
NMVOC Mt 42 36 40 44 46 44 42 44 45 50 58 67
NOx  MtN 13 12 14 16 17 17 16 16 16 17 19 21
REF - A2 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 418 421 438 454 473 507 519 551 568 622 684 706
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 3.2 3.7 4.9 5.7 8.5 12.5 14.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 17 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
Liquids 15 10 11 13 14 16 17 19 22 25 31 37
Gas 15 11 13 17 22 27 32 36 40 42 44 46
Electricity 8 6 8 11 14 16 19 22 26 31 37 43
Others
Total 55 38 43 52 61 70 79 89 99 110 123 137
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 23 12 13 17 19 21 23 26 30 37 48 59
Oil 17 12 13 15 17 19 21 16 11 7 3 0
Gas 25 19 22 29 33 37 40 43 46 49 51 52
Nuclear 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 8 10 14 18 22
Biomass 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 9 12 14 15
Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7
Total 67 45 52 64 74 84 93 102 111 124 139 155
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 9.1 9.5 10.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Gas 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.7 31.9 45.0 59.3 74.3 90.0 107.0 125.3 145.8 168.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.03 1.22 1.40 1.46 1.52 1.63 1.75 1.93 2.17 2.41
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.03 1.22 1.40 1.46 1.52 1.63 1.75 1.93 2.17 2.41
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 41 46 57 67 78 92 106 119 131 143
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 11.1 12.0 12.0 11.1 10.2 8.2 6.2 4.8 4.0 3.2
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 13 20 27 31 37 41 44 48 52
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 17 20 25 30 35 40 42
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 7 10 12 15 19 24 28 32 36 38
CO MtCO 69 41 40 40 47 51 56 63 70 83 101 119
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 19 25 28 31 29 27 29 33 37
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8
ASIA - A2 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2791 3295 3801 4308 4779 5500 5764 6137 6333 6858 7214 7340
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.3 7.6 12.6 15.0 20.0 23.1 34.9 50.5 57.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 21 28 33 38 33 27 22 22 23 23 23 23
Liquids 13 24 39 64 77 90 103 118 134 156 185 215
Gas 2 5 9 19 28 36 45 51 56 59 60 60
Electricity 5 9 13 20 42 64 86 104 121 140 160 181
Others
Total 42 65 95 141 179 218 256 295 334 379 429 479
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 32 43 52 62 86 110 134 181 227 272 313 355
Oil 17 30 48 77 70 64 57 35 13 1 1 0
Gas 3 6 13 24 42 60 79 85 91 93 88 84
Nuclear 0 1 2 3 11 19 26 37 47 60 75 90
Biomass 0 0 1 3 10 16 23 22 21 20 20 20
Other Renewables 1 2 3 5 8 12 16 18 21 25 28 32
Total 53 82 119 174 228 281 335 378 421 470 526 581
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.2 4.4 6.0 8.1 10.6 13.5 16.9
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.5 5.4 6.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.0 75.7 120.2 173.8 234.9 303.5 379.5 463.6 556.6 659.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.47 3.52 4.64 5.45 6.27 7.08 7.90 8.79 9.75 10.71
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.35 0.28 0.22 0.15 0.08 0.04 0.03 0.02
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.81 3.92 4.99 5.73 6.48 7.23 7.98 8.83 9.78 10.74
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 144 163 184 205 227 241 255 272 290 308
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 3.2 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.6 6.9 7.2
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 36.2 51.5 56.6 52.7 48.9 40.1 31.3 25.6 23.1 20.5
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 11 18 27 38 54 77 100 130 167 204
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 11 15 20 25 32 42 49 56 64 67
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 16 20 27 34 43 49 55 62 67
CO MtCO 235 270 321 361 435 479 522 576 630 707 806 906
NMVOC Mt 33 37 41 46 50 53 56 60 64 69 76 82
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 16 20 23 26 28 30 33 36 40
ALM - A2 ASF 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1222 1530 1974 2417 2846 3578 3862 4250 4458 5025 5394 5526
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 2.4 3.4 5.1 7.8 11.5 19.3 23.0 30.6 35.4 52.9 74.7 83.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial
Solids 1 1 2 3 5 7 8 10 12 13 14 16
Liquids 21 31 45 70 87 104 121 138 155 178 208 238
Gas 5 8 13 24 37 50 64 73 83 89 93 96
Electricity 4 6 9 15 23 32 40 52 64 79 97 115
Others
Total 31 47 69 112 153 193 234 273 313 359 411 464
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 4 7 9 14 24 35 45 92 140 185 228 272
Oil 24 36 53 82 88 94 100 67 34 14 7 0
Gas 8 11 17 29 48 68 87 97 107 114 116 118
Nuclear 0 0 0 1 4 7 9 15 20 28 39 50
Biomass 0 0 2 5 12 19 25 43 60 74 86 98
Other Renewables 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 13 16 18 21 25
Total 38 56 85 137 184 231 278 327 376 433 498 563
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 3.0 4.6 6.7 9.2
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.2 4.2 5.0 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.8
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.2 4.2 5.3 6.4 7.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 36.7 63.6 99.0 140.1 185.0 235.2 292.3 357.1 431.5 516.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland
Grasslands
Energy Biomass
Forest
Others
Total
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.45 2.31 3.08 3.52 3.96 4.84 5.72 6.70 7.79 8.87
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.77 0.85 0.84 0.78 0.71 0.52 0.32 0.21 0.18 0.16
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.23 3.16 3.92 4.30 4.68 5.36 6.04 6.91 7.97 9.03
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 107 132 153 171 188 208 229 246 259 272
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 16.5 24.4 31.7 32.6 33.5 29.0 24.4 22.1 21.9 21.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 19 32 49 69 98 139 181 233 295 336
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 8 12 16 21 26 34 39 45 50 52
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 7 10 13 18 23 29 32 37 41 43
CO MtCO 396 404 448 499 603 656 709 758 808 877 968 1058
NMVOC Mt 48 55 60 70 81 89 96 106 115 127 142 156
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 14 19 21 24 26 29 32 36 40