IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.8 57.0 91.3 135.4 187.1 254.1 322.9 393.2 469.6 550.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.4 45.7 67.2 98.7 139.0 186.4 246.8 313.2 382.0 456.6 535.0
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 25 20 16 10 7 5 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 42 60 66 71 72 46 31 27 22 15 2 1
Liquids 111 125 157 193 246 300 344 357 354 346 343 311
Gas 41 48 66 83 107 135 155 180 177 159 132 100
Electricity 35 48 66 100 153 209 275 349 424 483 534 589
Others 8 12 18 33 48 61 83 108 138 179 220 268
Total 275 317 393 495 634 757 893 1020 1115 1182 1231 1270
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 106 125 151 180 153 119 87 60 53 40 25
Oil 128 155 172 193 223 241 250 236 205 143 113 77
Gas 71 87 124 166 231 288 324 344 324 291 240 196
Nuclear 7 8 11 17 40 78 115 145 175 175 153 114
Biomass 46 46 55 75 104 137 183 235 280 324 353 370
Other Renewables 8 15 25 48 73 122 222 358 544 756 985 1239
Total 352 416 513 649 850 1018 1213 1407 1588 1743 1884 2021
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.7 6.5 8.1 9.3 10.1 10.7 11.3 11.7
Oil 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.9 11.3 13.8 16.1 18.2 19.6 20.8
Gas 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.5 6.8 9.7 13.0 16.4 19.6 22.6 25.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 162.1 260.3 373.4 498.6 623.1 741.3 847.6 937.0 1008.4 1061.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 1459 1466 1462 1457 1454 1448 1442 1436 1429 1424 1422 1420
Grasslands 3389 3404 3429 3446 3458 3478 3498 3525 3552 3568 3572 3576
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 74 158 288 418 492 566 581 538 495
Forest 4296 4237 4173 4164 4164 4177 4190 4194 4199 4202 4203 4204
Others 3805 3842 3886 3807 3715 3558 3400 3301 3203 3173 3213 3253
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.33 10.00 12.26 12.60 12.29 11.41 9.91 8.05 6.27 4.31 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.04 0.26 0.12 0.05 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.38 10.26 12.38 12.65 12.26 11.38 9.87 8.02 6.26 4.32
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 362 415 483 495 500 459 404 359 317 274 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 64.7 59.9 59.6 46.6 40.2 34.4 30.1 25.2 23.3 20.2
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1003 1147 1362 1555 1770 1944 2078 2164 2156 2077
NMVOC Mt 139 141 164 190 212 229 241 242 229 199 167 128
NOx  MtN 31 32 39 46 56 60 61 60 52 43 35 28
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
OECD90 - A1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 25.6 31.6 38.7 46.8 55.7 65.7 77.2 90.8 106.6 124.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.8 22.1 27.4 33.7 40.8 48.6 57.4 67.6 79.7 93.6 109.4
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 13 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 69 74 73 72 70 66 65 62 61 60 55
Gas 22 28 33 34 35 35 32 27 21 19 15 12
Electricity 22 29 36 44 55 65 74 83 95 104 112 118
Others 1 1 3 6 7 10 13 17 22 29 38 48
Total 124 139 152 160 171 180 185 193 201 212 225 233
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 36 36 32 25 11 4 3 2 1 1 1
Oil 72 83 81 72 63 55 46 39 30 23 20 14
Gas 33 45 57 70 79 78 76 66 59 56 45 34
Nuclear 6 7 8 10 22 43 56 64 67 58 45 28
Biomass 6 9 11 17 21 24 31 37 41 45 52 55
Other Renewables 4 6 10 15 20 27 44 65 98 143 194 245
Total 159 186 202 214 230 238 257 275 297 325 356 377
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.6
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.9 95.6 126.4 153.0 174.5 192.9 208.6 221.9 233.0 241.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 356 356 355
Grasslands 760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849 847 846
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 11 24 44 63 74 86 88 81 75
Forest 1050 1053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 1061 1054 1050 1049 1048
Others 838 833 828 814 798 765 733 712 691 685 695 705
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.31 3.18 2.96 2.38 2.00 1.71 1.38 1.17 0.95 0.66 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.01 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.35 3.20 2.96 2.35 1.96 1.72 1.43 1.24 0.98 0.67
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 68 66 60 56 52 48 47 45 43 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 8.3 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.3
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 183 190 184 186 202 210 206 206 208 190
NMVOC Mt 42 36 38 38 33 30 27 26 23 20 16 10
NOx  MtN 13 12 14 13 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 2
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
REF - A1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.1 5.4 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 2.5 3.7 6.0 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 11 10 12 14 14 12 13 13 14 16 17
Gas 14 11 14 17 22 26 27 26 23 19 13 9
Electricity 6 6 7 10 14 20 23 26 28 32 34 34
Others 7 6 6 9 13 13 12 12 11 11 12 13
Total 50 38 41 51 65 72 73 76 76 76 75 73
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 14 11 13 17 16 11 4 2 1 8 8
Oil 20 15 13 14 15 14 12 12 8 6 5 3
Gas 27 23 29 32 40 44 50 63 72 70 46 31
Nuclear 1 1 1 1 4 9 10 9 5 3 3 2
Biomass 2 1 1 1 3 4 7 10 12 14 16 19
Other Renewables 1 1 2 4 6 7 12 14 19 26 42 52
Total 70 54 56 65 84 95 101 112 117 120 119 116
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.5 5.0
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.9 31.3 42.4 54.4 65.2 75.7 86.7 97.4 106.8 114.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 371 371 372 373 374
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 11 16 19 22 23 21 20
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922 927
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 709 703 700 696
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.88 1.00 1.22 1.24 1.16 1.20 1.20 1.11 0.91 0.66 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.01 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.06 1.01 1.22 1.17 1.01 1.09 1.11 1.03 0.84 0.61
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 42 49 58 58 54 52 48 43 36 30 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.5 4.9 5.2 4.5 4.1 1.8 1.2 0.7 3.0 3.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 49 61 82 98 112 121 118 105 90 75
NMVOC Mt 16 13 16 20 25 31 34 39 37 33 30 26
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
ASIA - A1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 13.5 27.2 44.9 65.3 95.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.3 13.5 22.8 36.2 52.2 70.0 96.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 15 11 8 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 38 51 60 63 38 24 21 21 13 1 0
Liquids 13 22 38 56 86 120 152 157 156 149 142 131
Gas 2 3 8 14 22 40 54 73 77 72 62 45
Electricity 4 8 15 30 51 70 98 128 160 183 201 222
Others 1 3 5 11 15 18 25 35 46 59 74 89
Total 62 88 128 178 241 289 356 414 459 476 479 486
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 51 71 96 122 102 79 57 39 40 26 12
Oil 15 26 39 55 76 91 102 95 90 60 45 31
Gas 3 5 14 28 48 74 98 108 101 88 81 68
Nuclear 0 1 2 4 8 15 27 43 65 74 65 48
Biomass 24 23 27 33 44 59 83 108 123 132 132 142
Other Renewables 1 3 6 15 26 44 79 130 191 261 343 435
Total 74 108 160 231 323 385 467 540 609 655 692 736
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.7 4.8 5.6 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.2
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.1 3.1 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.5 7.0
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.7 6.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.7 76.3 120.8 173.1 225.8 275.0 317.9 353.7 381.9 401.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 438 435 434 433 432 431 431 430 429 428 428 428
Grasslands 608 606 609 611 613 615 617 618 619 621 622 624
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 68 99 117 134 138 127 117
Forest 535 522 512 524 535 535 535 544 552 556 555 555
Others 583 601 609 579 547 515 483 456 429 421 431 441
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.73 3.90 5.26 5.36 5.19 4.65 4.06 3.29 2.47 1.52 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.22 -0.13 -0.12 -0.04 0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.10 -0.04 0.01 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.95 3.77 5.14 5.32 5.22 4.62 3.97 3.19 2.43 1.53
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 152 185 225 226 227 200 167 147 130 110 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 32.3 35.4 35.8 22.8 16.3 13.4 11.6 8.8 6.6 5.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 340 422 564 663 784 853 896 914 866 777
NMVOC Mt 33 37 47 58 70 75 82 82 83 76 63 41
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 17 23 26 28 26 22 18 15 12
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
ALM - A1T MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.8 20.0 34.3 53.5 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.5 13.3 22.8 36.7 55.3 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 9 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 4 5 5 6 8 7 6 2 1 1 1
Liquids 17 24 35 52 75 97 114 122 123 122 125 109
Gas 4 6 11 18 27 35 43 54 56 49 42 36
Electricity 3 5 9 17 33 54 81 111 140 165 188 215
Others 0 2 4 7 12 21 33 44 59 80 96 118
Total 39 52 73 106 157 217 279 336 379 418 452 478
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 5 8 10 16 24 26 24 18 12 5 4
Oil 21 31 40 53 69 81 90 89 77 54 43 28
Gas 8 14 23 37 65 91 101 107 92 78 69 63
Nuclear 0 0 1 2 6 12 23 30 38 40 40 35
Biomass 14 13 17 24 36 50 62 81 104 134 153 153
Other Renewables 2 4 8 14 21 44 87 150 236 326 406 508
Total 49 68 96 139 213 301 389 480 565 644 717 791
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.8 5.6 6.1 6.5
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.4 6.2 6.8
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.6 57.1 83.8 118.2 157.6 197.8 234.3 263.9 286.7 304.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 165 240 282 324 333 308 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1544 1463 1419 1374 1364 1387 1411
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.41 1.92 2.82 3.62 3.94 3.84 3.26 2.48 1.94 1.48 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.60 0.36 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.03 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1T run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.01 2.28 3.07 3.81 4.07 3.96 3.36 2.56 2.00 1.51
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 98 114 133 150 162 155 141 123 105 90 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1T run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.8 15.7 13.5 11.3 8.8 6.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 431 474 533 608 671 760 858 938 992 1035
NMVOC Mt 48 55 63 74 83 92 98 95 87 69 58 50
NOx  MtN 7 8 10 12 15 18 20 21 19 15 13 12
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data