IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1G MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.8 57.0 91.3 135.4 187.1 254.1 322.9 393.2 469.6 550.0
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.4 45.7 67.2 98.7 139.0 186.4 246.8 313.2 382.0 456.6 535.0
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 25 20 16 10 7 5 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 42 57 67 75 84 88 74 47 39 25 5 3
Liquids 111 125 157 190 241 292 374 453 491 525 525 510
Gas 41 47 62 76 100 132 161 215 235 253 284 300
Electricity 35 46 64 101 161 242 344 464 573 668 749 800
Others 8 11 18 29 45 55 67 86 106 124 143 152
Total 275 311 387 487 640 815 1024 1265 1444 1595 1705 1765
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 104 130 167 220 266 272 261 259 214 153 84
Oil 128 155 172 194 235 279 365 451 479 506 461 391
Gas 71 85 119 164 236 328 449 649 796 916 1089 1239
Nuclear 7 8 11 17 30 54 90 128 169 225 282 332
Biomass 46 44 54 76 107 145 193 243 311 381 409 414
Other Renewables 8 13 23 38 61 91 125 165 203 237 264 277
Total 352 409 509 657 889 1163 1495 1898 2217 2479 2658 2737
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 2.0 3.3 4.9 7.1 9.8 12.5 15.1 17.7 19.9 21.4
Oil 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.7 9.0 11.8 15.4 20.0 24.7 29.8 34.4
Gas 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.8 10.1 14.6 21.1 29.0 38.2 49.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 162.9 265.1 390.3 549.0 744.1 981.7 1257.3 1555.3 1863.7 2170.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 1459 1466 1462 1457 1454 1448 1442 1436 1429 1424 1422 1420
Grasslands 3389 3404 3429 3446 3458 3478 3498 3525 3552 3568 3572 3576
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 74 158 288 418 492 566 581 538 495
Forest 4296 4237 4173 4164 4164 4177 4190 4194 4199 4202 4203 4204
Others 3805 3842 3886 3807 3715 3558 3400 3301 3203 3173 3213 3253
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.49 10.66 14.00 17.56 21.45 26.11 29.08 30.58 31.14 30.31 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.04 0.26 0.12 0.05 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.54 10.91 14.12 17.61 21.42 26.08 29.04 30.55 31.13 30.31
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 363 419 496 538 566 555 531 497 474 436 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 64.3 60.3 63.9 71.9 69.0 59.1 51.2 45.7 43.1 40.5
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 986 1123 1344 1616 2026 2399 2717 3033 3199 3261
NMVOC Mt 139 141 160 178 200 237 297 370 416 459 474 484
NOx  MtN 31 32 38 46 59 72 89 108 118 124 129 133
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
OECD90 - A1G MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 25.6 31.6 38.7 46.8 55.7 65.7 77.2 90.8 106.6 124.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.8 22.1 27.4 33.7 40.8 48.6 57.4 67.6 79.7 93.6 109.4
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 11 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 69 77 75 73 71 79 86 87 94 100 105
Gas 22 28 33 34 38 41 38 33 30 25 22 18
Electricity 22 28 35 45 58 73 89 106 124 139 153 165
Others 1 1 3 5 8 10 12 16 23 27 31 32
Total 124 138 153 162 178 195 218 241 264 284 305 321
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 38 45 52 57 55 40 26 20 19 17 15
Oil 72 84 83 75 67 64 76 80 82 91 99 99
Gas 33 45 55 66 78 87 101 118 140 139 156 162
Nuclear 6 7 8 10 15 26 41 53 59 68 68 74
Biomass 6 7 7 13 19 24 29 32 36 40 43 47
Other Renewables 4 5 9 12 16 22 28 35 44 49 54 57
Total 159 186 206 227 252 278 315 345 381 406 437 453
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.4
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.8 8.8
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.9 7.3 8.7 10.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.7 99.8 137.4 175.8 214.5 253.8 294.7 337.5 382.5 428.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 356 356 355
Grasslands 760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849 847 846
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 11 24 44 63 74 86 88 81 75
Forest 1050 1053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 1061 1054 1050 1049 1048
Others 838 833 828 814 798 765 733 712 691 685 695 705
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.49 3.67 3.84 3.87 3.93 3.96 4.17 4.28 4.61 4.58 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.01 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.52 3.69 3.84 3.84 3.89 3.97 4.22 4.34 4.65 4.59
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 73 73 77 81 79 75 73 66 62 56 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 8.9 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.1 3.4 4.9 5.8
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 172 176 173 184 205 214 217 228 236 234
NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 35 30 29 31 33 36 39 43 44
NOx  MtN 13 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 14 15 17 18
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
REF - A1G MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.1 5.4 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 2.5 3.7 6.0 9.4 12.6 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.2 34.4
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 10 10 12 16 16 22 28 29 28 27 28
Gas 14 10 12 16 19 20 16 12 9 8 7 5
Electricity 6 5 6 9 15 21 27 33 38 42 46 49
Others 7 6 6 8 12 14 13 14 15 16 16 16
Total 50 35 38 47 64 71 79 86 90 94 97 97
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 13 10 14 20 23 22 25 23 21 21 20
Oil 20 14 13 13 16 16 19 27 30 32 23 19
Gas 27 21 25 29 36 38 40 45 49 60 71 92
Nuclear 1 1 1 1 2 4 7 11 16 20 25 24
Biomass 2 1 1 3 6 10 14 17 28 32 33 33
Other Renewables 1 1 2 3 5 7 9 12 16 19 21 23
Total 70 51 51 63 85 98 112 138 162 183 193 211
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.2
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.4
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 20.7 31.0 42.9 56.6 70.5 86.1 104.0 123.2 143.1 163.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 371 371 372 373 374
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 11 16 19 22 23 21 20
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922 927
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 709 703 700 696
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.85 1.02 1.35 1.46 1.54 1.86 1.94 2.06 2.05 2.24 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.01 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.03 1.03 1.34 1.39 1.39 1.74 1.85 1.99 1.98 2.19
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 42 50 59 59 53 52 51 51 51 50 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.2 4.8 3.9 4.5 4.1 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 46 52 82 97 110 115 118 110 99 81
NMVOC Mt 16 13 16 20 26 32 38 55 78 96 93 99
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 5
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
ASIA - A1G MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 13.5 27.2 44.9 65.3 95.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.3 13.5 22.8 36.2 52.2 70.0 96.8 126.9 155.5 186.5 218.2
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 15 11 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 37 52 63 71 74 56 37 28 17 3 2
Liquids 13 22 37 55 83 116 162 188 201 213 211 198
Gas 2 3 6 10 17 29 43 87 105 111 117 119
Electricity 4 7 14 27 48 79 118 167 212 253 285 298
Others 1 2 6 10 16 17 22 31 38 43 52 59
Total 62 87 125 174 239 318 404 510 585 638 668 676
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 48 67 90 124 165 176 163 145 116 79 42
Oil 15 26 38 55 79 108 152 170 169 172 139 103
Gas 3 5 15 29 49 77 116 212 287 332 381 429
Nuclear 0 1 2 4 8 14 23 36 56 87 121 143
Biomass 24 22 28 37 47 59 80 109 127 142 151 153
Other Renewables 1 3 5 12 21 30 42 56 69 81 91 96
Total 74 105 156 226 327 453 588 746 853 929 962 965
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.3 7.0 8.6 10.0 11.2 12.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.5 8.2 9.9 11.3
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 5.0 7.9 11.2 15.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 42.7 76.5 123.2 189.5 276.1 379.6 494.4 614.1 732.3 843.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 438 435 434 433 432 431 431 430 429 428 428 428
Grasslands 608 606 609 611 613 615 617 618 619 621 622 624
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 68 99 117 134 138 127 117
Forest 535 522 512 524 535 535 535 544 552 556 555 555
Others 583 601 609 579 547 515 483 456 429 421 431 441
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.73 3.94 5.65 7.77 9.58 11.13 11.96 12.16 11.61 10.70 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.22 -0.13 -0.12 -0.04 0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.10 -0.04 0.01 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.95 3.81 5.54 7.72 9.60 11.09 11.87 12.07 11.57 10.71
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 151 182 226 242 254 238 216 198 183 162 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 31.2 36.0 40.5 47.4 42.2 31.7 24.2 19.7 17.1 15.1
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 345 425 554 701 928 1103 1227 1318 1390 1372
NMVOC Mt 33 37 46 54 63 77 107 130 144 155 155 150
NOx  MtN 7 9 12 16 23 31 40 49 53 55 54 54
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
ALM - A1G MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.4 9.8 20.0 34.3 53.5 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 7.5 13.3 22.8 36.7 55.3 76.5 98.7 122.5 147.2 173.1
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 10 9 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 5 6 6 9 13 17 10 11 8 2 1
Liquids 17 24 33 49 70 90 111 151 174 190 186 179
Gas 4 6 11 16 26 43 63 83 91 109 138 159
Electricity 3 5 9 19 40 68 110 158 199 234 266 288
Others 0 2 3 6 9 14 20 26 31 38 45 46
Total 39 51 71 104 159 231 324 428 506 579 635 672
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 5 8 12 19 23 35 47 71 59 36 8
Oil 21 31 39 51 72 91 119 175 197 212 199 170
Gas 8 14 24 41 73 126 192 273 321 385 482 555
Nuclear 0 0 1 2 6 11 18 27 38 51 68 92
Biomass 14 14 17 24 36 53 70 86 121 168 183 182
Other Renewables 2 4 7 12 21 32 47 62 75 88 98 102
Total 49 67 96 142 225 335 481 670 822 961 1065 1109
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.9
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.3 6.0 8.0 10.1 12.1
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.8 7.5 10.7 14.5 19.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 35.7 57.8 86.8 127.1 183.0 262.2 364.1 480.4 605.8 734.6
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 165 240 282 324 333 308 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1544 1463 1419 1374 1364 1387 1411
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.43 2.03 3.15 4.47 6.41 9.16 11.01 12.07 12.88 12.78 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.60 0.36 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.03 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.03 2.39 3.40 4.66 6.54 9.28 11.11 12.15 12.93 12.82
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 98 114 134 155 180 190 192 181 179 168 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.0 14.7 15.8 16.5 18.8 18.6 18.7 16.4 14.9 13.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 423 469 535 634 782 967 1154 1378 1473 1573
NMVOC Mt 48 55 61 70 82 98 122 152 159 169 184 191
NOx  MtN 7 8 9 12 17 22 30 40 45 49 53 56
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data