IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1G AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6805 7493 8182 8439 8704 8538 8375 8030 7528 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.6 37.9 56.6 89.7 128.2 183.4 237.8 308.4 382.3 453.3 537.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 50 48 37 35 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 36 34 47 65 83 88 93 83 74 66 57 48
Liquids 111 124 159 206 273 342 412 477 543 589 616 643
Gas 51 60 86 115 150 204 258 303 348 379 396 413
Electricity 38 50 71 98 142 220 299 381 464 523 560 596
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 285 315 400 519 674 868 1061 1245 1429 1556 1628 1700
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 93 101 140 179 218 212 206 193 180 168 155 144
Oil 143 167 221 290 385 472 582 600 620 640 659 679
Gas 73 99 146 206 285 397 560 659 778 866 910 956
Nuclear 6 10 15 26 45 69 117 140 168 192 208 226
Biomass 50 48 38 34 35 50 75 126 210 277 286 295
Other Renewables 10 11 13 16 24 37 61 95 150 200 225 253
Total 376 435 573 752 993 1237 1601 1813 2106 2342 2442 2554
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.1 1.0 2.3 3.8 5.8 7.7 10.1 11.8 13.7 15.6 17.1 18.8
Oil 0.1 1.7 3.6 6.2 9.6 13.5 19.2 24.2 30.6 37.2 43.4 50.8
Gas 0.1 0.9 2.2 3.9 6.4 9.6 14.8 20.2 27.6 36.0 44.4 54.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 170.8 300.6 465.0 662.3 897.6 1161.1 1439.9 1732.0 2032.2 2337.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 1437 1487 1546 1580 1554 1469 1389 1266 1154 1052 959 874
Grasslands 3290 3287 3474 3874 4315 4328 4341 4184 4032 3914 3827 3741
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 2 68 154 348 502 723 879 901 923
Forest 4249 4120 3979 3816 3767 3812 3858 3952 4049 4140 4224 4310
Others 3966 4048 3944 3671 3238 3120 3006 2969 2933 2950 3021 3093
Total 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942 12942
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 9.67 13.09 17.49 21.11 25.58 27.11 28.77 29.88 30.33 30.80
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.45 1.78 0.52 0.33 0.05 -0.03 -0.10 -0.11 -0.07 -0.01
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 11.11 14.87 18.01 21.44 25.62 27.08 28.67 29.76 30.26 30.79
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 393 470 541 525 511 449 396 353 319 289
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 87.4 100.9 91.4 69.3 64.4 47.0 35.7 30.7 28.9 27.4
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1226 1552 1747 2008 2307 2546 2812 3086 3364 3666
NMVOC Mt 139 141 181 230 269 273 279 283 288 268 227 192
NOx  MtN 31 32 40 49 52 50 49 47 45 43 41 40
OECD90 - A1G AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 960 1002 1043 1062 1081 1086 1091 1097 1103 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.4 25.2 31.1 38.3 45.7 54.7 64.7 76.7 90.1 105.2 122.8
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5
Liquids 64 75 79 85 91 97 104 107 111 115 120 125
Gas 25 34 39 43 47 53 59 65 71 76 80 83
Electricity 22 28 32 36 42 49 57 67 77 86 96 105
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 127 147 159 173 189 209 229 248 266 284 301 318
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 41 42 43 39 33 34 35 32 29 28 27 27
Oil 76 92 98 106 112 121 131 127 124 125 130 136
Gas 34 51 60 68 75 90 108 120 134 147 158 170
Nuclear 5 7 10 14 19 20 20 23 26 30 34 38
Biomass 6 1 0 0 2 6 14 24 40 53 55 57
Other Renewables 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 20 27 35 40 46
Total 167 199 216 233 251 282 322 346 380 416 443 473
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8
Oil 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.9 4.0 5.0 6.4 7.5 8.8 10.1 11.4 12.8
Gas 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.2 5.2 6.5 8.0 9.4 11.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 62.6 97.8 136.5 179.8 229.7 283.2 337.1 391.5 446.4 502.2
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 410 404 389 373 350 336 321 286 255 227 202 180
Grasslands 787 758 750 783 834 843 852 817 783 754 728 703
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 7 20 56 78 108 132 142 152
Forest 1056 1065 1103 1133 1176 1183 1190 1231 1274 1312 1344 1378
Others 886 912 897 850 772 746 721 716 711 712 720 728
Total 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140 3140
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.42 3.78 4.14 4.68 5.30 5.39 5.48 5.56 5.62 5.68
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.12 -0.05 -0.12 -0.05 0.04 -0.02 -0.07 -0.10 -0.08 -0.07
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.30 3.73 4.02 4.63 5.34 5.37 5.41 5.46 5.54 5.61
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 71 71 63 56 51 47 43 41 38
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.9 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 175 191 213 231 250 260 270 286 307 330
NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 39 39 34 30 25 21 18 17 16
NOx  MtN 13 12 12 12 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
REF - A1G AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 424 430 435 429 423 406 391 374 356 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.2 12.5 15.7 19.8 24.2 29.0 34.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2
Liquids 19 11 11 11 13 14 16 17 18 20 21 22
Gas 19 14 20 23 27 37 46 49 52 53 53 53
Electricity 8 9 11 13 16 20 25 27 29 30 30 30
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 58 43 47 53 61 77 92 97 102 105 106 106
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 18 12 14 14 14 14 15 13 11 9 8 7
Oil 22 16 17 16 18 20 23 22 22 22 23 24
Gas 26 22 30 35 41 52 65 69 73 75 76 76
Nuclear 1 1 2 4 5 7 9 10 10 10 11 11
Biomass 2 4 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 12 13 13
Other Renewables 1 1 1 2 2 3 5 7 9 11 12 13
Total 71 57 64 71 80 98 121 126 135 141 142 144
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.4 5.1 5.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 21.0 32.1 44.1 57.9 74.2 91.6 108.2 124.2 140.0 155.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 279 284 296 298 298 287 276 260 245 225 202 181
Grasslands 346 357 400 466 551 563 575 565 555 540 521 502
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 7 15 31 38 46 46 38 31
Forest 960 961 951 952 951 957 963 984 1007 1034 1068 1103
Others 720 703 658 588 497 478 460 455 450 456 471 487
Total 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305 2305
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.06 1.14 1.26 1.50 1.79 1.74 1.69 1.67 1.67 1.68
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 -0.08 -0.10 -0.12
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.09 1.14 1.26 1.49 1.78 1.70 1.63 1.58 1.57 1.56
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 60 66 68 59 51 49 47 44 42 39
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 12.2 10.8 7.5 4.3 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 42 45 50 55 61 64 67 71 76 80
NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
ASIA - A1G AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3556 3851 4147 4183 4220 4016 3822 3541 3194 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 12.3 26.3 40.8 63.4 86.3 117.5 149.4 177.4 210.6
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 28 23 19 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 15 19 32 45 59 63 66 60 54 48 42 35
Liquids 11 15 30 49 77 100 124 155 187 210 224 238
Gas 2 4 9 16 27 42 56 75 94 108 119 129
Electricity 5 7 15 27 46 76 106 143 180 208 227 246
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 61 68 105 153 213 283 352 433 514 574 611 648
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 38 68 99 128 117 107 100 94 86 78 70
Oil 17 24 45 74 114 144 182 199 217 233 245 257
Gas 4 8 18 35 61 97 156 196 247 289 313 340
Nuclear 0 1 2 5 13 23 43 54 66 78 86 95
Biomass 28 24 19 14 7 11 17 29 48 64 66 68
Other Renewables 1 2 2 3 5 10 20 34 56 78 90 103
Total 80 96 154 230 327 403 525 611 729 827 877 933
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 3.9 5.2 6.1 7.1 8.1 8.9 9.7
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.1 6.7 8.8 11.2 13.4 16.2
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.7 7.0 9.7 12.6 16.2
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 45.2 87.4 145.6 216.9 299.4 392.5 495.0 606.1 722.7 843.1
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 390 407 433 457 459 429 401 363 327 302 284 268
Grasslands 521 524 547 593 643 647 650 631 613 601 597 592
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 2 21 41 81 116 166 198 200 201
Forest 527 490 452 417 410 423 436 451 467 478 485 492
Others 576 593 583 545 482 463 445 438 431 434 448 462
Total 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 3.04 4.56 6.45 7.53 8.79 9.69 10.69 11.39 11.74 12.09
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.40 0.45 0.17 0.11 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.14
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 3.44 5.02 6.62 7.64 8.86 9.76 10.75 11.47 11.85 12.23
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 156 200 248 246 244 202 166 144 130 118
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 42.2 54.5 45.9 20.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.3
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 487 676 836 977 1139 1251 1373 1502 1637 1783
NMVOC Mt 33 37 55 79 96 100 105 111 117 109 89 71
NOx  MtN 7 9 13 17 20 20 19 18 17 15 14 13
ALM - A1G AIM 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1865 2211 2557 2761 2980 3024 3067 3013 2866 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 5.3 10.3 19.8 32.3 52.8 70.4 93.9 118.6 141.7 169.4
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 19 18 20 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 2 3 6 9 10 12 11 10 8 7 6
Liquids 17 22 39 60 93 131 169 198 227 244 251 258
Gas 4 9 18 33 49 73 96 114 132 142 145 147
Electricity 4 6 12 21 39 75 111 144 178 199 208 216
Others 0 0 0 0
Total 40 57 90 140 211 299 388 467 546 594 611 628
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 8 16 27 44 47 50 48 46 44 42 40
Oil 27 35 62 94 142 187 247 252 257 260 261 262
Gas 9 18 38 68 108 158 231 273 323 356 363 371
Nuclear 0 0 1 3 8 19 44 54 65 74 78 82
Biomass 14 18 19 20 26 32 40 67 112 148 152 157
Other Renewables 2 2 3 4 7 12 22 35 57 76 83 92
Total 57 82 138 217 334 455 634 729 861 957 980 1004
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.5 1.7
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.7 8.7 11.4 14.1 16.6 6.7
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.1 5.2 7.4 10.5 13.9 17.3 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 41.9 83.3 138.7 207.7 294.4 393.8 499.5 610.2 723.0 836.5
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha
Cropland 357 391 427 451 446 417 390 357 327 298 271 246
Grasslands 1636 1648 1776 2032 2287 2275 2264 2171 2081 2019 1981 1944
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 0 33 77 180 269 402 501 520 539
Forest 1706 1604 1474 1313 1230 1249 1269 1285 1302 1315 1327 1338
Others 1784 1840 1806 1687 1487 1433 1380 1361 1341 1348 1382 1416
Total 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483 5483
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 2.15 3.61 5.64 7.40 9.70 10.29 10.92 11.26 11.30 11.35
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 1.14 1.37 0.47 0.28 -0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 0.04
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 3.29 4.98 6.11 7.68 9.65 10.25 10.89 11.25 11.31 11.39
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 106 134 155 157 160 148 136 122 107 93
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 20.3 25.7 28.7 35.7 44.2 28.0 17.8 13.7 12.8 12.0
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 522 640 649 745 857 971 1101 1227 1344 1472
NMVOC Mt 48 55 75 99 121 125 130 132 134 125 106 89
NOx  MtN 7 8 12 17 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21