IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1
World - A1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 20.9 26.7 37.9 56.5 89.1 135.2 181.3 247.6 313.8 383.3 455.9 528.5
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 25.7 33.3 47.1 66.6 96.6 138.9 181.0 240.7 304.2 372.2 443.0 513.9
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 38 28 22 16 10 7 5 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 42 58 59 67 73 70 48 35 29 26 24 15
Liquids 111 125 160 204 254 303 357 396 403 365 308 254
Gas 41 48 67 85 104 135 164 199 210 202 158 96
Electricity 35 47 70 107 164 232 311 414 536 647 745 859
Others 8 10 20 38 58 84 122 169 234 320 422 525
Total 275 316 398 517 662 830 1005 1213 1413 1560 1657 1749
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 91 105 120 157 194 227 210 182 192 213 200 192
Oil 128 155 172 198 225 250 281 333 326 253 184 138
Gas 71 85 128 178 250 320 378 445 482 456 398 350
Nuclear 7 9 12 19 34 55 84 126 185 247 306 358
Biomass 46 47 63 87 120 155 204 251 315 394 438 475
Other Renewables 8 13 29 52 78 134 240 371 534 730 945 1172
Total 352 415 524 689 901 1141 1397 1707 2035 2292 2472 2683
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.9 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.7 9.0 11.1 12.9 14.8 17.0 19.0
Oil 0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.7 8.9 11.4 14.2 17.6 20.8 23.4 25.2
Gas 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.7 7.1 10.3 14.1 18.6 23.4 28.0 31.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 75.3 162.0 262.8 383.6 528.0 688.0 859.3 1041.9 1224.6 1390.9 1537.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 1459 1466 1462 1457 1454 1448 1442 1436 1429 1424 1422 1420
Grasslands 3389 3404 3429 3446 3458 3478 3498 3525 3552 3568 3572 3576
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 74 158 288 418 492 566 581 538 495
Forest 4296 4237 4173 4164 4164 4177 4190 4194 4199 4202 4203 4204
Others 3805 3842 3886 3807 3715 3558 3400 3301 3203 3173 3213 3253
Total 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.31 10.56 13.21 15.51 16.47 17.84 18.73 17.86 15.46 13.83 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.04 0.26 0.12 0.05 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 0.00 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.36 10.81 13.33 15.56 16.45 17.81 18.70 17.83 15.44 13.83
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 362 418 486 517 531 502 477 451 400 347 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 65.8 62.2 61.8 59.6 49.4 45.4 43.2 40.4 35.9 31.4
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1022 1218 1412 1659 1925 2173 2380 2548 2568 2532
NMVOC Mt 139 141 164 194 211 235 259 282 276 234 188 137
NOx  MtN 31 32 39 50 60 71 80 90 95 90 81 74
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
OECD90 - A1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 16.4 20.5 25.3 31.0 38.0 46.1 54.1 65.5 76.9 90.3 105.7 121.1
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 14.1 17.7 21.8 26.9 33.0 40.1 47.2 57.2 67.3 79.2 92.9 106.6
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 13 13 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 66 68 73 78 77 75 70 67 55 45 36 27
Gas 22 28 35 40 44 44 43 41 40 36 24 12
Electricity 22 28 38 50 62 70 81 97 117 132 150 172
Others 1 1 4 9 12 17 24 34 50 70 93 109
Total 124 138 157 180 197 207 218 240 262 282 303 320
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 38 36 39 42 44 32 20 11 6 5 3 2
Oil 72 82 79 80 75 67 58 55 43 35 28 25
Gas 33 45 60 76 87 96 97 107 118 118 108 113
Nuclear 6 7 9 10 14 20 27 38 48 56 60 59
Biomass 6 9 14 20 27 34 42 44 44 40 41 52
Other Renewables 4 6 12 16 22 35 59 81 114 156 211 246
Total 159 184 210 243 269 283 303 335 372 409 450 497
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7
Oil 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.8
Gas 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.2 8.4 9.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 30.1 63.4 99.6 137.7 174.0 205.5 234.1 261.8 288.1 311.7 333.4
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 381 380 377 376 375 372 368 364 359 356 356 355
Grasslands 760 763 771 774 776 787 797 818 839 849 847 846
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 11 24 44 63 74 86 88 81 75
Forest 1050 1053 1052 1053 1056 1062 1068 1061 1054 1050 1049 1048
Others 838 833 828 814 798 765 733 712 691 685 695 705
Total 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.43 3.76 3.84 3.44 2.94 2.82 2.66 2.49 2.15 2.14 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 0.00 0.05 0.06 0.04 0.01 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.46 3.78 3.83 3.41 2.89 2.83 2.71 2.55 2.18 2.15
CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 71 71 68 65 63 63 63 62 63 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.7 3.7 2.3 1.5 1.1 2.2 2.0 2.7 3.1 4.4
HFC MtC eq. 19 58 110 108 115 118 122 123 123 124 125 125
PFC MtC eq. 18 13 13 11 9 8 9 10 12 13 14 16
SF6 MtC eq. 23 23 14 5 6 7 9 11 13 16 18 20
CO MtCO 179 161 194 218 217 217 214 206 200 186 149 151
NMVOC Mt 42 36 39 41 37 33 28 27 25 21 14 9
NOx  MtN 13 12 14 16 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 11
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
REF - A1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.8 12.4 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.3 34.2
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 2.6 2.2 3.1 4.3 6.0 8.8 12.4 16.2 20.0 24.4 29.3 34.2
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 9 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liquids 15 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 11 15 21
Gas 14 11 15 17 20 26 29 33 32 25 16 7
Electricity 6 6 7 10 14 20 27 32 38 45 51 56
Others 7 6 7 10 12 15 17 17 19 23 26 28
Total 50 38 42 50 59 72 85 92 99 103 108 112
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 19 15 12 14 17 30 32 26 13 8 17 19
Oil 20 15 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 9 7 5
Gas 27 22 30 32 38 42 50 67 81 79 63 53
Nuclear 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Biomass 2 1 1 2 3 5 8 10 14 21 32 47
Other Renewables 1 1 2 4 6 9 16 19 26 37 49 55
Total 70 54 58 64 77 99 121 138 151 160 173 187
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
Gas 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 11.0 21.0 31.4 41.9 54.7 69.5 85.4 101.6 116.5 130.3 143.3
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 268 266 265 265 265 264 263 262 262 261 260 260
Grasslands 341 361 364 366 367 368 370 371 371 372 373 374
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 3 6 11 16 19 22 23 21 20
Forest 966 950 918 904 894 899 905 909 912 916 922 927
Others 701 698 728 738 745 733 722 715 709 703 700 696
Total 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.91 0.96 1.14 1.50 1.67 1.79 1.65 1.49 1.41 1.31 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.01 0.00 -0.08 -0.15 -0.12 -0.09 -0.07 -0.06 -0.05 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 1.09 0.97 1.14 1.42 1.52 1.67 1.56 1.42 1.35 1.25
CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 44 48 55 58 58 62 60 53 46 40 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.5 4.7 3.0 3.9 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.7 1.8
HFC MtC eq. 0 4 8 19 29 31 32 33 33 34 33 31
PFC MtC eq. 7 4 5 8 14 20 21 22 23 24 25 24
SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 8 10 14 18 21 19 15 14 10 11
CO MtCO 69 41 53 61 79 112 151 157 152 128 97 65
NMVOC Mt 16 13 16 20 25 33 41 47 48 42 34 23
NOx  MtN 5 3 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 9 8 8
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
ASIA - A1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.8 12.3 26.2 44.5 62.7 91.9 121.0 150.0 178.6 207.3
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 5.3 8.2 13.5 21.6 35.2 51.8 67.5 93.3 121.0 150.0 178.6 207.3
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 24 17 13 8 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 19 36 41 51 59 54 33 26 27 24 22 14
Liquids 13 20 27 47 69 95 122 140 143 134 114 106
Gas 2 3 7 10 14 22 39 64 73 75 62 37
Electricity 4 7 12 24 42 67 97 136 186 231 271 318
Others 1 2 4 10 16 25 37 54 77 107 144 182
Total 62 85 105 150 204 266 330 420 505 570 613 655
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 30 48 57 79 99 120 114 104 120 126 105 87
Oil 15 24 28 40 57 71 80 93 77 56 43 41
Gas 3 5 12 22 37 54 81 109 116 112 96 74
Nuclear 0 1 1 4 8 15 26 44 71 102 138 173
Biomass 24 22 27 35 48 64 82 106 133 156 158 163
Other Renewables 1 3 6 14 23 42 75 122 179 239 308 391
Total 74 102 131 193 272 366 459 578 697 791 849 928
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.5 6.5 7.7 9.0 10.1
Oil 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.9 5.4 5.9
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.4 5.5 6.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 17.8 40.2 67.9 104.7 153.3 210.3 271.8 337.0 403.5 464.5 516.7
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 438 435 434 433 432 431 431 430 429 428 428 428
Grasslands 608 606 609 611 613 615 617 618 619 621 622 624
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 17 37 68 99 117 134 138 127 117
Forest 535 522 512 524 535 535 535 544 552 556 555 555
Others 583 601 609 579 547 515 483 456 429 421 431 441
Total 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.22 3.23 4.39 5.49 5.93 6.38 6.78 6.70 5.63 4.85 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.22 -0.13 -0.12 -0.04 0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.10 -0.04 0.01 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.44 3.10 4.27 5.44 5.96 6.35 6.69 6.61 5.59 4.86
CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 148 180 220 230 237 213 194 179 161 143 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 27.2 29.7 31.4 30.2 20.9 16.8 15.4 14.3 12.9 11.9
HFC MtC eq. 0 5 18 45 92 153 224 292 292 285 275 262
PFC MtC eq. 3 5 8 15 23 30 35 39 43 46 48 46
SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 19 28 42 50 55 48 35 33 37
CO MtCO 235 270 316 413 544 660 776 906 960 1001 968 910
NMVOC Mt 33 37 40 51 59 66 73 85 79 73 62 42
NOx  MtN 7 9 11 15 19 24 28 32 34 33 30 26
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data
ALM - A1 MESSAGE 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Population Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727
GNP/GDP (mex) Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 5.3 10.3 19.5 35.8 52.0 73.9 95.8 118.6 142.3 165.9
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices) 3.8 5.1 8.6 13.8 22.4 38.1 53.9 73.9 95.8 118.6 142.3 165.9
Final Energy EJ
Non-commercial 14 11 9 8 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0
Solids 1 5 7 10 11 14 14 9 3 2 2 2
Liquids 17 27 50 68 98 122 153 180 196 175 144 100
Gas 4 6 11 18 25 43 53 61 66 67 56 40
Electricity 3 6 12 24 47 75 106 150 195 239 274 314
Others 0 1 4 9 17 27 45 63 89 121 159 206
Total 39 55 93 138 203 285 373 463 548 604 634 662
Primary Energy EJ
Coal 5 7 14 22 35 46 44 41 53 74 76 83
Oil 21 35 53 67 81 100 131 172 194 154 106 67
Gas 8 14 26 49 88 128 150 163 168 148 131 110
Nuclear 0 0 1 4 10 18 28 40 61 83 101 118
Biomass 14 15 22 30 41 53 72 91 124 176 207 213
Other Renewables 2 3 10 18 27 48 90 148 215 298 377 480
Total 49 74 125 190 283 394 514 656 815 932 999 1071
Cumulative Resources Use ZJ
Coal 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.3 4.0
Oil 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.9 6.7 8.6 10.1 11.2
Gas 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.3 7.9 9.4 10.7
Cumulative CO2 Emissions GtC 0.0 16.4 37.3 63.9 99.2 146.0 202.7 268.0 341.5 416.5 484.4 543.9
Carbon Sequestraction GtC
Land Use Million ha Land-use taken from AIM A1 marker run
Cropland 371 385 384 383 382 381 381 380 379 379 378 378
Grasslands 1680 1673 1685 1695 1702 1708 1714 1718 1722 1726 1730 1733
Energy Biomass 0 0 0 42 90 165 240 282 324 333 308 284
Forest 1745 1711 1690 1683 1680 1681 1682 1681 1680 1678 1676 1674
Others 1684 1710 1720 1676 1625 1544 1463 1419 1374 1364 1387 1411
Total 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.76 2.61 3.84 5.09 5.93 6.86 7.63 7.18 6.27 5.53 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.60 0.36 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.03 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM A1 marker run)
Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 2.36 2.96 4.09 5.28 6.07 6.98 7.73 7.26 6.32 5.56
CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 99 119 141 162 171 165 160 155 131 100 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM A1 marker run
SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 18.5 21.1 22.2 21.0 20.6 20.1 20.2 17.7 14.2 10.4
HFC MtC eq. 0 2 15 39 81 139 184 205 210 210 206 196
PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 9 14 19 23 26 28 30 31 30
SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 10 14 19 32 40 42 37 23 24 26
CO MtCO 396 404 459 526 572 670 785 904 1069 1233 1353 1405
NMVOC Mt 48 55 68 82 90 102 117 124 124 98 78 63
NOx  MtN 7 8 11 15 20 25 30 36 38 36 33 30
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM A1 marker land-use data