IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

Other reports in this collection
Table VI-4a: Standardized GHG emissions for the preliminary A1 marker (AIM) as posted on the CIESIN web page (sres.ciesin.org) during the open process. These data are not necessarily identical with the final marker scenarios.
 
Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ WORLD (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 5262 7493 8704 7056
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 20.9 56.5 181.3 528.5
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 49.8 35.6 0 0
     Solids
 36 62 74.5 24.6
     Liquids
 110.7 196.9 301.8 386.5
     Gas
 50.5 134 295.1 431.7
     Electricity
 38.3 103.7 330.7 898.1
     Others
     Total
 285.3 532.2 1002 1741
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
 85 144.5 140.3 41.1
     Oil
 125.8 200.5 181 107
     Gas
 67.6 186.5 400.3 490.4
     Nuclear
 6.5 30.4 122.7 77.9
     Biomass
 49.8 62.8 192.8 375.9
     Other Renewables
 10.3 23 167.1 986.9
     Total
 345 647.8 1204 2079
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
 0.1 3.4 7.9 12.2
     Oil
 0.1 5 10.8 17.7
     Gas
 0.1 3.5 12.2 36.1
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 7.1 309.5 768.7 1517
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
 1437 1553 1325 858
     Grasslands
 3290 3750 4065 3551
     Energy Biomass
 0 200 793 1208
     Forest
 4249 3811 3874 4326
     Others
 3966 3628 2885 2999
     Total
 12942 12942 12942 12942
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC
 6 12.1 16 13.1
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
 1.2 1.9 0.2 -0.2
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
 7.1 14 16.2 12.9
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
 341.7 499.3 529.7 316.2
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
 6.6 7.7 6.8 4.8
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
 69.1 101.8 63.8 24.4
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
 751.7 1328 1787 2268
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
 27.6 46.9 47.2 38.3
* at market exchange rate

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ OECD90 (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 858.5 1002 1081 1110
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 16.4 31 54.1 121
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
     Non-commercial
 6.1 0 0 0
     Solids
 10 8.5 6.1 1.4
     Liquids
 64.1 81.8 74.5 66.5
     Gas
 24.8 50.4 68.1 78.1
     Electricity
 21.8 39.5 69.7 175
     Others
     Total
 126.8 180 218 321
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
 37.7 32.5 26 6.2
     Oil
 70 80.8 50.6 29.3
     Gas
 31.4 65.2 88.4 89.4
     Nuclear
 5.2 16.5 24.3 15
     Biomass
 6.1 4.1 29.1 56.8
     Other Renewables
 5.5 10.8 35.3 192
Total
 155.9 210 254 389
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
 0 1.2 2 2.7
     Oil
 0.1 2.5 4.5 6.3
     Gas
 0 1.5 3.9 8.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 2.9 103 207 344
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
 410 381 300 198
     Grasslands
 787 788 815 730
     Energy Biomass
 0 15 95 179
     Forest
 1056 1105 1243 1370
     Others
 886 851 686 663
     Total
 3140 3140 3140 3140
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC 2.9 3.6 3.5 2.3
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
 0 0 -0.2 0
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
 2.9 3.6 3.2 2.3
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
 81.1 78.9 61.7 47.5
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
 2.7 2.8 2.3 1.5
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
 22.0 6.1 5.8 4.6
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
 173.5 225 247 261
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
 12.9 12.8 7.3 5.9

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ REF (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 413 430 423 339
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.1 2.9 12.4 34.2
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 2 0 0 0
     Solids
 9.4 5.5 4 1.2
     Liquids
 18.9 8.9 7 6.2
     Gas
 19.3 22.9 45.5 49.9
     Electricity
 8.1 12.7 27.7 55.4
     Others
     Total
 57.7 50 84.2 113
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
 18.4 14.1 11 2.7
     Oil
 22.2 11.6 6.7 2.2
     Gas
 26.3 32.7 55.3 53.5
     Nuclear
 1.1 3.9 8.4 4.8
     Biomass
 2 1.1 7.6 14.8
     Other Renewables
 1.3 1.7 15 60.7
     Total
 71.3 65 104 139
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
 0 0.4 0.8 1.1
     Oil
 0 0.4 0.7 0.9
     Gas
 0 0.8 2.1 4.9
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 1.2 30.3 62.6 102
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
 279 299 287 180
     Grasslands
 346 454 566 478
     Energy Biomass
 0 0 31 49
     Forest
 960 970 973 1114
     Others
 720 582 447 485
     Total
 2305 2305 2305 2305
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC
 1.2 1 1.1 0.7
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
 0 0 0 -0.1
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
 1.2 1 1.1 0.6
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
 58.7 79.1 64.5 51.9
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
 16.5 11.7 2.9 1.6
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
 69.8 51.1 54.5 47.4
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
 4 3.1 2.1 1
* at market exchange rate

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ ASIA (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 2798.2 3851 4220 2882
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.5 12.3 62.7 207
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 27.8 14.1 0 0
     Solids
 15.4 44 57.3 20.1
     Liquids
 10.8 48.3 86.9 112
     Gas
 2 17.3 70 160
     Electricity
 4.6 27.1 117 363
     Others
     Total
 60.6 151 331 655
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
 25.8 80.4 77.5 25.1
     Oil
 13.1 48.3 40.4 20.9
     Gas
 3 26.9 108 184
     Nuclear
 0.1 5.7 45.3 31.8
     Biomass
 27.8 20.5 45.7 89
     Other Renewables
 1.3 4.2 57.6 400
     Total
 71.3 186 374 750
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
 0 1.5 4.1 6.6
     Oil
 0 0.9 2.3 3.8
     Gas
 0 0.3 2.3 10.3
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 1.5 87.8 253 546
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
 390 437 367 246
     Grasslands
 521 586 621 584
     Energy Biomass
 0 44 197 257
     Forest
 527 411 405 472
     Others
 576 536 424 456
     Total
 2014 2014 2014 2014
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC
 1.1 4 5.6 5.2
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
 1.5 4.6 5.9 5.2
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
 126.6 211 249 127
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
 2.3 2.8 2.7 2
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
 19.2 56.2 9.5 6.3
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
 265.5 583 847 979
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
 6 16.4 18.6 12.3
* at market exchange rate

Preliminary A1 Marker Scenario ­ ALM (Open process version, date of submission: 12/10/98)
1990 2020 2050 2100
Population in Million 1192.1 2211 2980 2727
GNP/GDP in Trillion US$90* 1.9 10.3 52 166
Final Energy by Fuel in EJ
Non-commercial 13.9 21.5 0 0
     Solids
 1.2 4 7.1 1.9
     Liquids
 16.9 57.9 133 202
     Gas
 4.4 43.4 112 144
     Electricity
 3.8 24.4 117 304
     Others
     Total
 40.2 151 369 652
Primary Energy by Fuel
     Coal
 3.1 17.5 25.8 7.1
     Oil
 20.5 59.9 83.4 54.5
     Gas
 6.9 61.7 149 164
     Nuclear
 0 4.3 44.7 26.3
     Biomass
 13.9 37.1 110 215
     Other Renewables
 2.1 6.4 59.2 335
     Total
 46.5 187 472 802
Cumulative Resource Use in ZJ
     Coal
 0 0.3 0.9 1.7
     Oil
 0 1.1 3.3 6.7
     Gas
 0 0.9 4 12.5
Cumulative CO2 Emissions in GtC 1.6 88.7 246 525
Land Use in Million ha
     Cropland
 357 436 371 234
     Grasslands
 1636 1921 2062 1759
     Energy Biomass
 0 141 470 724
     Forest
 1706 1326 1253 1371
     Others
 1784 1659 1328 1396
     Total
 5483 5483 5483 5483
Anthropogenic Emissions (not standardized)
     CO2 (as C) in GtC
 0.8 3.5 5.8 4.9
     Other CO2 (as C) in GtC
 0.8 1.3 0.2 -0.2
     Total CO2 (as C) in GtC
 1.6 4.8 6 4.8
     CH4 total (as CH4) in Mt CH4
 75.3 130 154 90.1
     N2O total (as N) in Mt N2O-N
 1 1.5 1.2 0.9
     SOx total (as S) in MtS
 11.4 27.7 45.5 11.9
     CO (as CO) in Mt CO
 242.9 469 639 981
     VOCs in Mt
     NOx (as N) in MtN
 4.6 14.6 19.3 19
* at market exchange rate

Other reports in this collection