IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

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Appendix IV: Six Modeling Approaches

The SRES Terms of Reference call for a multi-model approach for developing emissions scenarios (see Appendix I). In all, six different modeling approaches were used to generate the 40 SRES scenarios. These six models are representative of the approaches to emissions scenario modeling and the different integrated assessment frameworks used in the scenario literature and include both macro-economic (so-called top-down) and systems-engineering (so-called bottom-up) models. Some modeling teams developed scenarios to reflect all four storylines, while some presented scenarios for fewer storylines. Chapter 4 lists all the SRES scenarios, by modeling group and by scenario family. The six modeling approaches include:

IV.1. Asian Pacific Integrated Model

The Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a large-scale computer simulation model for scenario analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the impacts of global warming in the Asian-Pacific region. This model is being developed mainly to examine global warming response measures in the region, but it is linked to a world model so that it is possible to make global estimates. AIM comprises three main models - the GHG emission model (AIM/emission), the global climate change model (AIM/climate), and the climate change impact model (AIM/impact).

Figure IV-1: Outline of AIM/emission linkages.

 


The AIM-based quantification was conducted as an Asian collaborative project using a new linked version of the AIM/emission model, which covers the world but has a more detailed structure for the Asian-Pacific region than for other regions. The new linked version couples bottom-up models and top-down models (Figure IV-1).

Table IV- 1: Regional disaggregation of the six modeling approaches.

SRES
REF
OECD90
ASIA
ALM

AIM
Economies in Transition
OECD- West
USA
Oceania
Japan
Korea
Indoesia
Thaiand
Malysia
Other
East
Asia
India
Other
South-
Asia
China
Other
Centrally
Planned
Asia
Middle
East
Africa
Latin
America

ASF
Centrally Planned Europe
OECD- West
USA

OECD
Asia-Pacific

South East Asia
Centrally
Planned Asia
Middle
East
Africa
Latin
America

IMAGE
Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
OECD- Europe
Canada
USA
Oceania
Japan
East Asia
South Asia
Centrally
Planned Asia
Middle
East
Africa
Latin
America

MESSAGE
Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
North America
Pacific OECD
Pacific Asia
South Asia
Centrally
Planned Asia

Middle East & North Africa Sub- Saharan Africa

Latin America

MARIA
Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union
Other OECD
North Ame- rica
(Other OECD)
Japan
ASEAN and Other Asia
South Asia
China
ALM and others

MiniCAM
Centrally Planned Europe
OECD-Europe
Canada
USA
South East Asia
Centrally
Planned Asia
Middle
East
Africa
Latin
America



Table IV-2: ASF regions.

Region Countries

Africa (AFRICA) All African countries
Centrally Planned Asia (CPASIA) China, Laos, Mongolia, Korea (DPR), Vietnam
Eastern Europe and newly independent states (EENIS) Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, former USSR, former Yugoslavia
Latin America (LAMER) All Latin American countries (including Mexico, Central and South America)
Middle East (MEAST) All Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE
OECD-East (OECDA) Australia, Japan, New Zealand
OECD-West (OECDW) Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom
South East Asia and Oceania (SEASIA) Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Burma, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and other countries of the region
USA (USA) USA, Puerto Rico, and other US territories





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