Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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9. Aircraft Emissions: Current Inventories and Future Scenarios

Executive Summary

9.1. Introduction

9.2. Factors Affecting Aircraft Emissions

     9.2.1. Demand for Air Travel

     9.2.2. Developments in Technology

9.3. Historical, Present-Day, and 2015 Forecast Emissions Inventories

    9.3.1. NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR Historical and Present-Day Emissions Inventories

    9.3.2. NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR 2015 Emissions Forecasts

    9.3.3. Other Emissions Inventories

    9.3.4. Comparisons of Present-Day and 2015 Forecast Emissions Inventories (NASA, ANCAT/EC2, and DLR)

    9.3.5. Error Analysis and Assessment of Inventories

9.4. Long-Term Emissions Scenarios

    9.4.1. FESG 2050 Scenarios

    9.4.2. DTI 2050 Scenarios

    9.4.3. Environmental Defense Fund Long-Term Scenarios

    9.4.4. World Wide Fund for Nature Long-Term Scenario

    9.4.5. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Long-Term Scenarios

9.5. High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) Scenarios

    9.5.1. Description of Methods

    9.5.2. Description of Results

9.6. Evaluation and Assessment of Long-Term Subsonic Scenarios

    9.6.1. Difficulties in Constructing Long-Term Scenarios

    9.6.2. Structure and Assumptions

    9.6.3. Traffic Demand

    9.6.4. NOx Technology Projections

    9.6.5. Infrastructure and Fuel Availability Assumptions

    9.6.6. Plausibility Checks

References


STEPHEN C. HENDERSON AND UPALI K. WICKRAMA

Lead Authors: S.L. Baughcum, J.J. Begin, F. Franco, D.L. Greene, D.S. Lee, M.-L. McLaren, A.K. Mortlock, P.J. Newton, A. Schmitt, D.J. Sutkus, A. Vedantham, D.J. Wuebbles

Contributors: R.M. Gardner, L. Meisenheimer Review

Editor: O. Davidson



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