Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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Figure 2-8: Estimates of northern mid-latitude total ozone column changes (%) from NOx emission in the troposphere and stratosphere and aerosol emissions in the stratosphere from present subsonic aviation. The height of the rectangular bars indicates the mid-range estimate; the error bars represent an estimate of the two-thirds probability uncertainty range (i.e., a 67% chance that the true value falls within this range) as determined from either the dispersion among global model results or from consideration of process understanding. Independent of the specified uncertainty range, we judge the state of scientific understanding regarding aviation's NOx and particle effects to be fair and poor, respectively. This evaluation is based on the level of consensus in the scientific literature and the amount of evidence available to support the estimates and their uncertainties.

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