Aviation and the Global Atmosphere

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4. Modeling the Chemical Composition of the Future Atmosphere

Executive Summary

4.1. Introduction

4.2. Model Studies of Subsonic Aircraft

4.2.1. Models Used in Subsonic Aircraft Assessment
    4.2.1.1. Off-Line vs. On-Line Models
    4.2.1.2. Model Resolution
    4.2.1.3. Coupling to the Stratosphere
    4.2.1.4. Tropospheric NOx Sources
    4.2.1.5. Tropospheric Chemistry
    4.2.1.6. Tropospheric Transport
 
4.2.2. Definition of Scenarios
    4.2.2.1. Background Atmospheres
    4.2.2.2. Aircraft Emission Scenarios
 
4.2.3. Model Results for Subsonic Aircraft Emissions
    4.2.3.1. Ozone Perturbation
    4.2.3.2. NOx Perturbation
    4.2.3.3. Future Total Ozone Increases from Aircraft Emissions and Comparison with Increases from Other Sources
    4.2.3.4. Influence of Changing OH on CH4 Lifetime
    4.2.3.5. Sensitivity Studies

4.3. Model Studies of Supersonic Aircraft

4.3.1. Models Used in Supersonic Aircraft Assessment
    4.3.1.1. Domain and Resolution
    4.3.1.2. Temperature, Transport Parameters, and Solvers
    4.3.1.3. Chemistry
 
4.3.2. Definition of Scenarios
    4.3.2.1. Background Atmospheres
    4.3.2.2. Aircraft Emission Scenarios
 
4.3.3. Model Results for Supersonic Aircraft Emissions
    4.3.3.1. NOy and H2O Enhancement
    4.3.3.2. Profile and Column Ozone Change
    4.3.3.3. Column Ozone Sensitivity to Supersonic Emission of NOx and H2O
    4.3.3.4. Ambient Surface Area Density Sensitivity
    4.3.3.5. Sulfate Aerosols and Polar Stratospheric Cloud Sensitivities
    4.3.3.6. Ambient Chlorine Sensitivity
    4.3.3.7. Fleet Design

4.4. Uncertainties in Model Results

4.4.1. Uncertainties in Calculated Effects of Subsonic Aircraft Emissions
    4.4.1.1. Transport and the Fuel Study
    4.4.1.2. Chemistry
 
4.4.2. Uncertainties in Calculated Effects of Supersonic Aircraft Emissions
    4.4.2.1. Transport
    4.4.2.2. Model Resolution/Dimensionality
    4.4.2.3. Stratospheric Chemistry
    4.4.2.4. Polar Stratospheric Cloud, High Cirrus Cloud, and Aerosol Processing
    4.4.2.5. Underlying Subsonic Fleet
    4.4.2.6. Future Atmosphere
 
4.4.3. Soot Emissions by Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

4.5. Selection of Model Runs for UV (Chapter 5) and Climate Impact (Chapter 6) Scenario Studies

4.5.1. Model Simulations of Subsonic Aircraft
4.5.2. Model Simulations of Supersonic Aircraft

References


IVAR ISAKSEN AND CHARLES JACKMAN

Lead Authors:
S. Baughcum, F. Dentener, W. Grose, P. Kasibhatla, D. Kinnison, M.K.W.
Ko,
J.C. McConnell, G. Pitari, D.J. Wuebbles

Contributors:
T. Berntsen, M. Danilin, R. Eckman, E. Fleming, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, R.
Harwood, D. Jacob, H. Kelder, J.-F. Müller, M. Prather, H. Rogers, R.
Sausen, D. Stevenson, P. van Velthoven, M. van Weele, P. Vohralik, Y.
Wang, D. Weisenstein

Review Editor:
J. Austin

Support:
E. Abilova, D. Brown, K. Sage



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